The Game is UP - S&P500 & Economic Analysis

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Although all the Bears out there agree that the market action is illogical there is a strong counter-argument.
Reasons to be Bearish:
• Corporate Profits and Weak Manufacturing Outlook
• GDP is slashed
• Massive unemployment
• Corona Second Wave
• Mass Protests / Rioting
• Massive Quantitative Easing Will Corrupt the Economy
Reasons to Be Bullish
All Major Economies are using QE therefore the relative side effects are negligible vs other leading economies.

• Corona Situation is improving
Inflation is very low
• Money is super cheap
• Central Banks fully committed to saving economies

There is nowhere else for Capital to go:

• Bonds - Worthless.
Gold – only increased by 9.5% in 2020
• Cash – Useless
Commodities - no hope
• Commercial and Private Property – Flakey

Simply put, stocks are the only place for the big money to store and grow wealth at the moment.

Therefore I am long until the market tells me otherwise.


gold 9.5% not enough for you? Greed and FOMO is what’s pushing the run. It might last the summer but If the markets push high high high inflation will need to rise as product prices rise or the corporates won’t be able to justify there valuations.
+5 Reply
Your case is that the economic fundamentals are so bad that it hurts all other capital channels MORE and is causing the stock market to rise out of necessity.

Totally fair sadly lol.

Honestly it's the only real Bull case I've seen and I've been perusing for weeks here.

The only problem is that while cash may be technically useless ATM, it becomes extremely valuable AFTER a crash.

The greater the cash accumulation, the more incentive for a crash to happen. Cash at all time highs right now among corporates, institutions, famed investors and billionaires.

Still your short term Bull case remains solid. The trick is exiting before the programmatic selloffs ;).
+3 Reply
@ProfitHarvest, thanks for the reasoned discussion.
I completely agree, we're in the midst of a clown economy right now. Powell is Trumps lapdog and he's going to get blasted in the election this year if the economy is in the dumpster. They are and will do anything (QE infinity) to launch 401K's and markets into the stratosphere. We've got the largest population generation retiring, this gap is going to be filled by the FED. Also thinking oil is going to hit the moon once things start really coming back.. Lets not forget the U.S. Shale industry is nothing except completely wiped out, and Saudi's/OPEC+ are replacing pipes with straws to restrict supply. $4 a gallon gasoline will happen again, there will be no supply, and all of those Oil workers will likely take a year to get back to full operation.
+2 Reply
@Noodley, Trump can't risk trying to prop this through November.

Better for him, and all players really except Retail, to take a massive hit in June and grind it back up with months of constant "new highs".

He can easily blame the crash on the protests or Dems or whatever the F he wants. His scapegoat game is on point.

What he can't escape from is a stock market that crashes in August or September.

They aint planning to hold their breath for the next 5 months, not a chance in hell lol.

Crash must happen now or July to have time for a proper recover and marketing/spin campaign.
+2 Reply
Well, lookie there. A flip from bear to bull. Welcome aboard! Better late than never. ;)
+1 Reply
AlmadeCubano BuckiTrader
@BuckiTrader, He timed it perfectly too. Like David Lerner!!!
@AlmadeCubano, Lets see some of your analysis.
AlmadeCubano liberatedstocktrader
@liberatedstocktrader, I don't have to show you no stinkin' badges. But just so you know, I killed it today having shorted DAL, ALK, and UAL, BA, SPR, and GE yesterday. They all had the same freaking charts, same gaps, and same elevated RSIs. It was a wonderful day; I just wish I could have found some AAL yesterday, but it's a hard borrow -- for good reasons. However, unlike you, I don't tell people what to do, and don't present myself as an expert. I'm just a retired money manager, having fun while I'm locked in.

Good luck to you, my friend. You're a little too young to understand why I say that, but you'll learn.
@AlmadeCubano, Best wishes to you too, and I hope you keep on killing it, and as a 48 year old, it is nice to be called young, thanks buddy
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