As Oct 17 approaches, do you see any clue for a default?
andrewunknown
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Nothing concrete either way. In 2011 wobbled during the negotiations and political theater, but net-sold the agreement. That sequence has played out similarly thus far (including tonight's S&P futures drop), and if the 2009-2011 analog is going to play out, it will culminate over the next month:
huntingsniper
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Good summary! I am also impressed by your Septaper chart prediction about the Septaper disappointment.
andrewunknown
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thanks for the kind words! Bonds just didn't seem to have Septaper in the cards - can't pretend I knew it all along; but it turned out price was dropping some telling clues, as it usually does when we have the eyes to see/ears to hear.