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MrRenev
Feb 27, 2020 9:59 PM

Stonks: Where to buy Long

S&P 500 IndexTVC

Description

Remember when I said a few months 80% retail traders were short DJI & SPX? Well they kept hodling to their losers, and probably adding to them.
Well... this week shorts have dropped by 30 to 40% and now there are more longs. They held onto losers forever, and then exited the very WEEK the price went down!
Breakeven bagholders. The typical really dumb bad speculating that every article & book on trading talks about, and the majority does "oh noes I don't want to take a loss I rather bagHODL a giant loser for 6 months and risk losing everything for a shot at breaking even", and when it goes their way "quick quick I have to lock profit because this is what you do, when it goes your way, you take profit" (??????).



Going to keep going down as more retail turn long?

If the price would fall as low as described in the following screenshots, I would buy there on the SnP & DJI:




Not if it trends down... If it capitulates very rapidely there.

If we got there by early april as SARS V2 The return of the CORONAVIRUS disappears, now that would be perfect.

Can't tell for other indices, gets too complicated for me.

I'd use a stop of about just 5%, and if it gets hit I would look for another chance to buy.
Goes up from there well I wait for the trend and hold for a while.


I hope we get to see some real panic, some FEAR.
I want to see sweat & fear out there :) Would be perfect.

If CNBC calls for a mega bear market then you know it's time to buy :)


Oh btw, an ABC very extended C would be perfect:








Point of the story is these slow hesitant "disbelief" trends are very weak and drop way faster than it took them to go up.

Always have to be the first to exit. I don't like fighting the drop until 100% retrace.

And the opposite is:


Go up fast go down slow, go up slow go down fast. Always the same story (well not always not what I mean).

The bounce will probably be fast at first, then a disbelief slow trend up.
Like this:

Comment

Vultures are still disappearing. People still don't care.
SARS v2 Coravirus is back is still a fart in the wind that makes people afraid.

The disappearance of vulture is what like 1 billion times worse than the little corona blip? Not even exagerating.

People busy believing incredibly stupid claims like "CO2 is a dangerous pollutant" I have no words for how stupid this is and "muh drink must have no straw to save the planet".

Meanwhile...

In 2014 diclofenac was authorised for veterinary use in Europe
In 2014 diclofenac was authorised for veterinary use in Europe

This is a main reason for why vultures which are literally our only defense against the litteral zombie apocalypse times 10 are facing extinction.

In 2014 diclofenac was authorised for veterinary use in Europe
In 2014 diclofenac was authorised for veterinary use in Europe
In 2014 diclofenac was authorised for veterinary use in Europe

Sweaty mentally struggling politicians, scientists, and voters.

It's unbelievably easy to make money betting against such morons, but at the same time, the flip side is... Are humans too stupid to survive?
All this ultra easy money won't matter if every dies because too stupid to survive will it?








Markets didn't become more efficient.
Players have a harder time to make money because THEY are dumber, not markets fault.

Countertrend moronic insanity, always. Easy millions.

Man I really hope the US indices drop to my entry and every one calls for a mega bear. Drooling imbeciles.

Any way to short sell human intelligence? Or humanity period?

Comment

Biden is gaga, Sanders is nuts and Hitler with less charisma, Warren is a troll.

Trump will win and start his EU trade war, stocks will hesitate but generally keep going up.

And even thought Biden, Warren and Sanders will lose the election, they will at least still get to identify as US president :)
Comments
GerardWalker
hey Renev I've been following you for a while and eversince late 2018 to early 2019 your were one of the most vocal bears here in TV in regards to equities indices and crypto

Today Dow Jones down 1200 pts.S&P, NASDAQ, Nikkei etc tumbling 10 and 30 yr old bonds plunging record lows. Brent and Crude oil down to $34 a barrel. Nobody ever anticipated this except Warren Buffet and the Billionaires' club just as you said last year

Heres even a link to your idea last year


What made you change your bias ? when the current environment is ripe for correction
with trillion dollars in debt(corporate debt, student loan debt, auto loan debt, underfunded pension crisis, central banks in negative interest rates and record cash postions from the wealthiest elites in the world

You may want to revert back to your previous bias
global crisis is here
MrRenev
@GerardWalker, I do counter trend ... it's very punishing but going for risk reward very big 1 to 5 and more, it can work, reversal areas are not that hard to spot and with such Rs even a winrate of 20% or less can still be profitable. I do short term (days to a few months at most).
I am not sure the top is reached yet, and more importantly regarding a long term hold (maybe I should clear this up in my ideas) stocks are so expensive right now, at ath levels of expensive.

By the way, you might remember the indice/gdp chart I posted a few times.
Look at this:


GerardWalker
@MrRenev, yeah your right might try to emphasize on your posts whether they are short term plays or long term
PS i think your a gem tho such a good bear that when you actually start to consider bullisness its the very top haha in a good way however.

and like you said in your other posts your always too early to call tops but end up being right anyways or atleast thats what i noticed
RobBiddle
@MrRenev, Still a long way down to mean valuation levels and/or oversold.
Haejin
Gold is likely to fall hard in coming weeks. Buy DUST which is showing the hugest Bullish Engulfing candle.

Domsax48
Yeah, the virus causes a way exaggerated panic. But the disruption of the Chinese economy is sadly, real, and because every major firm more or less depends on Chinese partners, everyone will feel its consequences. Not to mention the defaults of numerous tourism-dependent firms... Let's see how this plays out.
MrRenev
@Domsax48, Ye that's true, I forgot to mention it, and China should be affected alot.
Companies have stocks & this won't last forever & they can find other sources (a little more expensive) and also china has resumed production ft.com/content/b7abf464-5791-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc
The total world paralysis that is being expected is not going to happen imo.
RobBiddle
@MrRenev, stocks are overpriced, even after this week-long crash. Best case virus-related slowdown will reduce earnings 2 straight quarters. When equity prices have already been going up at irrational increments relative to earnings there's not much room for error. A recession isn't even needed to justify a typical bear market, it's overdue IMHO, but rising equity values is the default now. I've given up on trying to predict the modern fed-driven market, so now I just accept it and enjoy straddle positions FTW.
nsprph
Dalio " cash is trash this year" lol
YBearBull
What do you think about AMD? Are the p/e of 150 and net debt of -778m bad?
Do you think 30 per share is a good deal for AMD if it reaches it?
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