S&P 500 (SPX): Is The Top In? Has This Trend Run Its Course?
Don't you believe the hype! Buy the steak, not the sizzle! Sell the news, buy the rumor! Ya-day, ya-da, ya-da!
Yes, admit it. You like most everybody are looking for the top of this monster trend and wanting to sell the "bubble" thinking you're gonna catch the top and ride it down. Visions of candycane and sugarpops dancing in your head and thinking about what color you want your Lambo and Ferrari to be!
NOT SO FAST!!!
From my viewpoint, this is your classic "bear trap". There are going to be many traders that are going to jump the gun and sell here thinking they "caught the top" placing stops above the high. That is when the "stop hunting" kicks in (as it has several time already) and moves prices higher yet again. When is this thing going to stop going higher? Its when there aren't anymore buyers and there aren't many more "suckers" to trigger the stop hunting. That is when it will stop rising! When liquidity dries up, you'll see this start to lose upward momentum and reverse. For now, this point is not it!
From a technical wave count standpoint, the final fifth wave of the fifth wave of this overall monstrous wave 3 has not even taken place yet. The top that is in now should only be the small wave 3 of the wave v of the larger 3. So we should see the small wave 4 correction take place now or soon. That wave 4 is typically where a lot of top hunters get suckered in just to see if go back up higher and they take losses. This is why you have wave 4's followed by wave 5's. Don't be that wave 4 sucker!
I'll be waiting for this market to PROVE to me that the trend is done before I dive in! You should, too!
@EverythingForex What your take on this after it crossed all the levels you suggested in bear trap? Are you expecting any correction yet or everything changes in your call?
lu1977hk
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it seems are at target. Any hint if that is the case?
BoyPlunger91
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Excellent post, I have to agree, We are all expecting a top , it doesn't feel right...
lu1977hk
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Thanks now i see why the yen is expected to depreciate. One question if i may, how do you see EUR/JPY in the long term? Which will have the strongest movement the EUR/USD downward or USD/JPY upward?
Geofftv1
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Very good analysis, it is really interesting to see the various thoughts on when this top will finally arrive.
IF correct your analysis has an extended 5 in progress which should be corrected very sharply when complete.