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connorzz10
Sep 4, 2022 1:32 PM

SPX 2000  Short

S&P 500SP

Description

When market conditions change people are usually positioned for the past 10 years and think that this can continue into the future.

If we know that Powell wants to be Volcker 2.0 we can assign probabilities of outcomes as follows:


Period Like The 1970s: 10%

Period Like 2000-2008: 30%

Period Like 1929: 60%

The reason i believe the 1929 period is the most probable is because nobody thinks it can happen again. As well as the fact that we have created the largest monetary policy bubble in US history. Given the historically cyclical nature of markets and humans, the odds that something like 1929 happening again almost exactly 100 years later, are high.
Comments
Tradersweekly
Thanks, I am also bearish.
FBC_TEPZ_TRADING
is this paid plan?
I can't view chart like and draw trendlines.
connorzz10
@petrosmoloto, nope
FBC_TEPZ_TRADING
@connorzz10, so how did you manage to view it like that?
FBC_TEPZ_TRADING
@connorzz10, help please
connorzz10
@petrosmoloto, spx monthly log scale
FBC_TEPZ_TRADING
@connorzz10, thanks for so much, i managed to do it.
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