QE3 is over. FED will not yet increase its interest rate. Will ECB's EQE profit to US market as FED's QE profit to European market? We don't know and we can hardly think that it will. What will fuel the market and particularlySPX? On a chartist view, SPX was evolving in a clear channel swinging between the top and the bottom. But on a long scale we can see that since November 2013 when FEd announce the end of QE3 and the tappering, the index cannot reach the highest point of the channel and become very quickly at an oversold level. Therefore at leas a correction process wich has already started will appear. The safest correction would be a 50% Fib retracement to 1780. Bellow, SPX would hardly go on the upside for a long time. Please bare in mind that the level of the index at 2000+ is just a virtual level that doesn't reflect the appropriate value of stocks and market because it is being fueled by FED's QE1+QE2+QE3+ cheap money i.e low interest rate....
Using a speeding car analogy, when going 150km/hr - take your foot off the gas - do not engage the brake - it takes time to slow down. Market could go higher after QE is ended. #bears picking tops and the SPX goes higher in a short squeeze. Plus with negative interest rates in the EU, where the ECB is trying to get eurozone banks to increase loans to the public and stimulate the economy, could have a different impact. There are no jobs in southern europe, very high unemployment, imo, the eurozone banks will not want to take the risk of increasing loans in a depressed economy, the risk is to great. Instead I believe eurozone banks will invest in the stock market and buy the dips with a good risk management plan. Even though FED QE is ending, Central Banks have an incentive program to invest in the futures market, I look at it as a back door QE program in the futures market. I do take note that this program is ending Dec 31 2014. see link here cmegroup.com/company/membership/files/CBIPFAQ.pdf TY for posting all your ideas, they are a pleasure to look at!