90 Year Channel Breakout | "The End" Theory

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
90 Year Channel formation began in 1931 after Great Depression Crash and has been strong support and resistance throughout this century.
In addition this structure analysis coincides with a theory that this is possibly "the end" of a multi-layered cycle based on generational, and psychological patterns described by various writers and analysts.

Point 1:
A Book The Fourth Turning by William Strauss Describes a cycle of huge revolutionary change that occurs within a series of events or event roughly within one generational decade.
These cycle events brought about dynamic changes in history and were closely tied to War/Revolution. Bust and Boom will likely ensue.

This would include the following major events:

Spanish Armada 1580s
English Civil War 1650s
Revolutionary War 1780s
Civil War 1860s
World War II/ Great Depression 1930s -40s

Pending event(s) 2020s

The last cycle event(s) produced a bear market that lead to expansion from 1940s to now. Opportunity and Optimism can be considered.

Point 2:
Sir John Glub wrote a book called Fate of Empires describing the cycles of an Empire in Phases before it's major change/ collapse.
Each Empire Studied did not reach more than 250 years before their major change or collapse

This would include the following

Assyria 859 - 612 BC | 247 years
Persia 538 - 330 BC | 208 years
Greece 331 - 100 BC | 231 years
Roman Republic 260 -27 BC | 233 Years
Roman Empire 27 BC - 180 AD | 207 Years
Arab Empire 634 - 880 AD | 246 Years
Ottoman Empire 1320 - 1570 | 250 Years
Spain 1500 - 1750 | 250 Years
Britain 1700 - 1950 | 250 Years

America Current age | 244 years

Signs of Empire Collapse would be found in what Glubb described in a last phase called "The age of Decadence"

This would include some or all of the following

Decline in culture morale and morals, founding beliefs, empire achievement, monetary value, and Political structures.
Rise in Inequality, toxic hedonism, confusion of roles, 3rd tier celebrity, self identity over community, Civil unrest and Strong anti-governing factions.

Point 3:
In 1973 Analysts used a computer that created a multi-point line graph from algorithmic calculations which predicted a future for global population, quality of life, natural resources and pollution trajectories.

Per the graph analysis print-out the computer mapped human quality of life, population and natural resources in a vertical read.

As of exactly the year 2020, the computer predicted the quality of life, population, a natural resources would start a rapid sharp decline.
The Pollution via physical trash etc would increase exponentially.

The printed prediction continued to show sharp decline in quality of life and population through 2040.

It is interesting to note the date of rapid change the computer algorithm began was exactly in the year 2020.

The Quality of Life Decline could be due to psychological pains due to relief limitations that humans cannot attain through material means.
What would be considered a rich convenience to some in this age, will become a normal occurrence to those in the future.

Minimalist revolutions will become the norm. Separation of physical, digital and spiritual philosophy will become new pathways of living.

Point 4:
This is a Paradox
The Fully Digital age cannot be stopped.
Contrary to what many may say to this as being negative, it is very healthy to go through Busts --> Booms. There is opportunity in many markets.

This is an analysis of factors that will seem to effect the market but it is in fact apart of what the market and society actually is.

Considering psychological patterns of human nature, behaviors, and market rise and fall, the above long scale cycle scenario whether exact or similar is inevitable.

"Hard Times = Strong Men = Good Times = Good Times = Weak Men = Hard Times"


Very good job