Odds for a March rate hike are low, which helps US stocks. The US Dollar is weak, helping oil, which helps 'US oil' companies and thereby helps the 'S&P 500'. Q1 2017 earnings are mixed, but overall good enough to support the stock market going higher.
My original target from two months ago is 2350-2400 and I stay with that target:
Risk: 15-25 points Reward: 65-125 point (2285-2350, 2275-2400)
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The S&P 500 rallied as high as 2319 on Friday. The super bullish headlines are starting to appear (take a look at the Marketwatch news article linked below). The risk of a painful pullback lower is now increasing.
S&P 500 Futures Rise to New Record as Trump Rally Continues
"U.S. stocks soared to new heights on Thursday after President Trump promised a “phenomenal” tax plan in the coming weeks, a sign investors were still looking to the White House for inspiration."
" (...) one prominent strategist suggesting that the so-called Trump rally is only beginning. Binky Chadha, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank, predicted that stocks have much further to go on the back of proposed tax revisions with the S&P 500 poised to hit 2,600 by the end of the year."
My two month old S&P 500 target of 2350 was reached both on Wednesday and on Thursday this week (February 15-16, 2017).
I had sell signals going into the Thursday spot open and they were confirmed with a drop down below 2340 and thereby broke the recent rally streak. Due to the Thursday decline I have now even more sell signals going into Friday spot open. But I don't have enough sell signals yet on higher time-frames to give a strong sell warning. Therefore I expect this is a dip inside the rally and not the final end peak of the rally. If the S&P 500 declines very hard on Friday I might change that opinion though.
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My three month old S&P 500 target of 2367 was reached several times since the end of last week (February 23-27, 2017). Which means the S&P 500 could be at a major peak.
If the current price area is the peak, then a downtrend starting next weeks would confirm my seven month old forecast that a larger decline starts in March 2017, which could last for several months:
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HAL9000
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Simple and efficient (and right so far!) - Well done. Thanks.