Conviction: 3/5
SPY could continue to outperform 
ACWX for another year as in 2015-2017 period.
Main Thesis
Potential Risks
SPY could continue to outperform ACWX for another year as in 2015-2017 period. Main Thesis
- Weekly RSI of SPY outperformance nearing overbought area, which have historically identified about 3 months of underperformance when SPY/ACWX touches 50W or 100W MA.
- Monthly RSI also approaching overbought.
- Daily RSI seems to be rolling over, but not definitive yet.
- Relative performance also nearing historical MT channel since 2011/2012
Potential Risks
- Historically international stocks do not seem to offer much protection during downturns. In fact, they seem to underperform SPY.
- SPY outperformance could continue awhile longer.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.