TLDR: THE SPX HAS JUST RETRACED 50% OF THE UPMOVE IN PRICE SINCE MARCH 2020 IN 50% OF THE TIME; THIS PROBABLY WASN'T A BEAR MARKET, BUT A TECHNICAL CORRECTION
The 50% Rule of W.D.Gann states that an asset will usually retrace 50% of its range in 50% of the amount of time that it took to establish the range.
Doctor Alan Andrews described the Action-Reaction system of technical analysis which also aligns with Gann's above theory
As far as i can tell, apart from the Doomer WWIII-Weimar2.0 Narrative, the best arguments as to why the bottom is not in are as follows: 1. Bear Markets last longer than 10 months 2. The Vix needs a bigger spike, >40 3. Fed 'printing'
History rhymes: hence in the first grey box...We see that in 2016-2018 there was a bullish phase (1-2) following which the market retraced 50% (2-3) over around six months and there was no capitulation spike in the vix; there was no QE going on in this period.
Since the corona pandemic, we have had a bullish phase (A-B) and now a 50% retrace of that move (B-C) for over 9 months.
I believe this has been a 50% technical retrace of the parabolic upmove between pivots A and B. I do not believe we are in a Bear Market. The 2016/18 bull move in spx was circa 60% in 3 years
The post corona bull move in spx was circa 150% in just over 18 months
A retrace of 50% in circa 6 months for the 16/18 move is comparable to this 2022 retrace over circa 9 months. Because this parabolic move up since the Corona drop was so brutal- it needed longer to retrace the move.
BUT MOREOVER SPX HAS JUST DONE THE PERFECT 50% PRICE AND TIME RETRACE
Yes the economy is challenged by the growth versus inflation paradigm... Some things never change... The market is not the economy and the market is forward looking... Yes i do believe great system change is inevitable, but i believe it is fiat currencies rather than equities that will bear the biggest brunt of this- pun intended.
GRI 2022
***NO ADVICE 'EVERGIVEN'*** (you can't Suez me ;-)
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Perfect 50% Time-Price Retrace
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Look… I’m a bear. There was an opportunity to crash with a big vix spike from the top. That didn’t happen. Also the dollar move to here was predestined. If we lose this level (red line) we are going to the purple line. If that happens your puts may moon but your brokerages and banks will likely become illiquid or insolvent. If that happens dxy will go to 150/200. I see no chance of any of that happening right now. Be careful what you wish for, Beartards…
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They had an opportunity to crash it what they did was a controlled demolition. They’ve made sure none of you want to buy at 50-90% discount. Do you really think Snapchat is going to a buck? Lol. Web 3 is the future bby…
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I normally say not TARDING advice but I think TARDING is exactly what the majority are doing RN
I look at price versus the 40 month moving average. Based on my imperfect knowledge of Elliott Wave Theory and the trendline work, seems that we are in a wave 2 corrective wave. Don't believe we will be under this moving average for long. I'm a buyer here.
Nice analysis mate. "B" in Dec last year is the 4.236 coming out of the 2000s bear market. The 4.236 of the 1970s bear market was the 1987 crash which was short lived and was not the start of a bear market. In log view it doesn't appear that the SPX has entered long term top territory like it did in the dot com bubble.
Great_Reset_Investing
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@eloquentplatypus, thanks for your contribution bruv. Hope all well. Ps 589 bby
wait why your fibs are down way ?? so we crash from here to 2000 if i understand your chart or up from 3580 O,O
Great_Reset_Investing
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@TORNADOF5, see the bottom diagram and the text. I have two 50% retraces on there. I am saying this was all just a technical retrace until otherwise proven.
DaddySawbucks
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many stonks down 60-80%. the rest may soon follow. if you bought intc for 65 you got 25 bucks left. thats a fkg bear imo
Great_Reset_Investing
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@DaddySawbucks, either buy blood on the streets or try to short it