In the post "Market prediction 2009-2014?" 17 months ago I pointed out the possibility of S&P reaching the 1650 target. As we all know the target has been surpassed. Here I update the analysis with in dept detailed wave counting and projections.
How did I set this target more than year ago? The 1.618x projection of the third wave (872.81 to 1370.49) was level of 1678. As described earlier in the previous posts (Market cycle and wave projecting part 1) this method proved to be relatively accurate in market peak setting. To be precise here I have counted the waves in details. Thus projecting the 3rd wave (from 1627.59 to 1806.55) gives target of area of 1806-1917 for the final wave 5, which coincides with the bull market peak. After recent sell off there is high probability that "the big" wave 5 of the bull market started 2009 has been completed.
What's next? The most worrying thing, however, is that not only Elliot wave analysis flashes bear signal. The market cycle theory confirms that as well. Historically the average bull phase lasts on average 5 years. Currently we are at the fifth year of the bull market, so stay focused.
Best CH
Comments
Mikke2130.
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i HERE A LOT OF INVESTOR AND TRADERS SAY THIS IS A MINOR SELL-OFF AND I WANT TO TELL ALL OF YOU THERE WRONG. THE MAJOR SELL OFF HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THE S&P 500 HAS ALREADY FORMED A PERFECT MONTHLY WOLFE WAVE PATTERN WHICH IS IN STAGE 5 EXTREME, WHILE MOMENTUM HAS ALREADY TURN DOWNWARD. THE MARKET WILL NOT ADVANCE SIGNIFICANTLY ANY FURTHER. THE DECLINE WILL DROP TO THE 700 TO 600 AREA. SO ANY ONE HOLDING STOCKS OR INDEXES FOR THE LONG HAUL ARE GOING TO LOOSE GREATLY. CHECK OUT THE WOLFE WAVE PATTERN.
CapitalHubs
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I respect your point of view but please don't spam different charts with the same post.
CH, in my cycle analysis for the SPX we are getting in 04/2014 a bear cycle, did you saw the chart already?
timwest
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CH, Where did you get the rules or labeling conventions for Elliott Wave that you have used here? Whose textbook are you following?
CapitalHubs
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That is the book: "Harmonic Elliott Wave: The Case for Modification of R. N. Elliotts Impulsive Wave Structure" by Ian Copsey.
However I've modified the method a bit and added more relations based on my own historical observations of S&P.
timwest
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Thanks - Perhaps labeling that each time would help sell some books for Ian Copsey. I studied under Glenn A. Neely of NeoWave and his textbook "Mastering Elliott Wave" which also introduced new variations, but kept the rules and logic. The net-net of it all is a few patterns are still my favorite: Find the end of an impulsive wave 2 and ride wave 3. And find terminals. The rest are just too hard to find regularly, from my experience. Thanks for sharing.
CapitalHubs
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It's always good to exchange knowledge. I agree that the most certain and reliable strategy is to take advantage of the 3rd wave, as it is strong and long. However, there are many opportunities in the following moves. All waves are interconnected with constantly repeating relations. As to the accuracy, no one should expect exact match but the competitive edge to know what are the most likely critical levels (ranges).