What I see is that too many people are bearish based on trade war. In my view the main reason to be bearish are high asset valuations. The twits are nothing but just jerk reactions of Pr.T. negotiating and can be used a buy-into-panic opportunity.
Negotiations go back and forth. Both sides use leverage etc.., but in the end they do come to an agreement.
The main trend of S&P 500 is UP and it is hard to fight it. As long as people have jobs, they plow money into mutual funds and the money managers are obligated to buy no matter what the news is or what the market is doing. This is the main force driving the index up -> "the dumb money". "The dumb money" is more powerful than all the technical traders and hedge funds combined with their small accounts compared to trillions of dollars in all sort of long term funds including pension, 401(k) and other long term investments. As long as people have jobs, they will buy on all dips and the withdrawals from funds will be smaller than money going in.
Sideways move over the past two years can be viewed as a consolidation and a correction since the index did not move up while corporations and civilization around the world has made progress. The longer the index goes sideways, the more probable it is that it will start going higher because the valuations are decreasing given that earnings and population growth is expanding and this is the main trend that lasted over 100 years. President Trump's twits and trade war with small tariffs can't stop that.
Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment only, it may be incorrect and should not be used for your investment decisions as you may lose all your money...and.. although my name says so, I am not from the future and don't know the future. I may or may not hold positions in symbols I talk about. I may change my mind and not tell you because posting stuff is not my priority. I just post things for fun based on what I learned and that may be incorrect.
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I am bearish on the market on medium time frame, but not on the short time frame. There can be a lot of movement up and down before the real bear market drops begin.
I d want to add to this: where you can put money?- Commodities, Equities and Bonds.
Commodities dont perform well in times of economic slow down. Bonds are at all time highs . Equities valuation are high too. However there are stock buyback which reduced the float. So at the end of the day liquid assets are reduced to choosing the lesser of evils.
lets get real - those CB/sovereign debts are never gonna get paid, just like many times in history - they are devalued to pennies on the dollar and financial pyramid starts anew. All in all when fiat currency is at serious risk of depreciation equity in profitable companies would retain some value. Of course most of the companies die out in process of re-balancing, but as a whole equities as an asset class will remain one of most attractive growth venues. While the "security" of bonds starts looking more and more like ponzi scheme. US Treasury started issuing 2 months paper a few years ago. -the ponzi pyramid is accelerating. Production been stagnant for a while , govts across the globe lose any kind of productivity gains in their economies, printing more and more. Another cycle of easing just started. -There is no safety in those "safe" assets in next 10-15 years perspective.
p.s. Of course there is gold , real estate etc. But those have their own dynamics and big money wants to diversify. What is the growth asset you can invest today which wont give you negative return in next 5, 10, 20 years? - That is a hundred trillion dollar question.
Commodities dont perform well in times of economic slow down. Bonds are at all time highs . Equities valuation are high too. However there are stock buyback which reduced the float. So at the end of the day liquid assets are reduced to choosing the lesser of evils.
lets get real - those CB/sovereign debts are never gonna get paid, just like many times in history - they are devalued to pennies on the dollar and financial pyramid starts anew. All in all when fiat currency is at serious risk of depreciation equity in profitable companies would retain some value. Of course most of the companies die out in process of re-balancing, but as a whole equities as an asset class will remain one of most attractive growth venues. While the "security" of bonds starts looking more and more like ponzi scheme. US Treasury started issuing 2 months paper a few years ago. -the ponzi pyramid is accelerating. Production been stagnant for a while , govts across the globe lose any kind of productivity gains in their economies, printing more and more. Another cycle of easing just started. -There is no safety in those "safe" assets in next 10-15 years perspective.
p.s. Of course there is gold , real estate etc. But those have their own dynamics and big money wants to diversify. What is the growth asset you can invest today which wont give you negative return in next 5, 10, 20 years? - That is a hundred trillion dollar question.