SPXUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 47% SPX, 53% Cash.
*I incorrectly mentioned that PCE numbers would be released today, they are scheduled for release tomorrow at 830am EST. The 2nd US Q2 GDP estimate was reported today at -0.6% compared to the previous Advanced estimate of -0.9%, the third and final Q2 estimate will be reported on 09/29/22. Equities, Cryptos and Energy are up while VIX, DXY, US Treasuries and Commodities (aside from Energy) are all down or flat. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard made a pitch for more frontloading to bring down inflation and mentioned that he'd like to see EOY FFR at 3.75%-4%. Bullard isn't a voting member on the rates but his view could gain momentum depending on tomorrow's July PCE report and August's Jobs + CPI numbers. The Risk-On appetite seems to be growing ahead of the anticipated speech by Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole tomorrow. Market consensus is that Powell will remain hawkish but tomorrow's PCE numbers may inspire a more dovish tone regarding end of year expectations. Key Upcoming Dates: US July PCE at 830am EST 08/26; UofM Final August Sentiment Survey Index at 10am EST 08/26; Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27 (Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak at 10am EST on 08/26).*
Price is currently trending up at $4199 and is still technically testing $4175 support. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored buyers in both of the last two sessions as Price tests $4175 support. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4290, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 56.73 after forming a trough at, and bouncing off of, 52.68 support. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up at 12 as it approaches 18.32 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at 55.35 minor support. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 25 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment.
If Price is able to close above $4175 in tomorrow's session, it will likely retest $4254 minor resistance before potentially retesting the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4300 as resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, the next likely target would be a retest of the uptrend line from 06/16/22 at ~$4100 as support. Mental Stop Loss: (two b2b closes above) $4175.
*I incorrectly mentioned that PCE numbers would be released today, they are scheduled for release tomorrow at 830am EST. The 2nd US Q2 GDP estimate was reported today at -0.6% compared to the previous Advanced estimate of -0.9%, the third and final Q2 estimate will be reported on 09/29/22. Equities, Cryptos and Energy are up while VIX, DXY, US Treasuries and Commodities (aside from Energy) are all down or flat. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard made a pitch for more frontloading to bring down inflation and mentioned that he'd like to see EOY FFR at 3.75%-4%. Bullard isn't a voting member on the rates but his view could gain momentum depending on tomorrow's July PCE report and August's Jobs + CPI numbers. The Risk-On appetite seems to be growing ahead of the anticipated speech by Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole tomorrow. Market consensus is that Powell will remain hawkish but tomorrow's PCE numbers may inspire a more dovish tone regarding end of year expectations. Key Upcoming Dates: US July PCE at 830am EST 08/26; UofM Final August Sentiment Survey Index at 10am EST 08/26; Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27 (Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak at 10am EST on 08/26).*
Price is currently trending up at $4199 and is still technically testing $4175 support. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored buyers in both of the last two sessions as Price tests $4175 support. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4290, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 56.73 after forming a trough at, and bouncing off of, 52.68 support. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up at 12 as it approaches 18.32 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at 55.35 minor support. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 25 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment.
If Price is able to close above $4175 in tomorrow's session, it will likely retest $4254 minor resistance before potentially retesting the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4300 as resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, the next likely target would be a retest of the uptrend line from 06/16/22 at ~$4100 as support. Mental Stop Loss: (two b2b closes above) $4175.