I've been predicting a drop and bounce in this window for weeks now.
We got the drop, just waiting on that bounce.
C'mon BULLS... lets see that final Bullgasm!
I expected Price to get down to 3300 here but 3330 bottom was strong in a lot of other analysis I saw. Sounds like a lot of people expecting it to drop a lot if it broke under that.
So here we are, maybe we get a double bottom bounce back to 3500? Or maybe it goes down to 3300 before bouncing? (that'd be cool)
Alternatively we could get a crash, which is also inline with a lot of other analysis here, but Volatility looking pretty stable right now so not expecting too much downside for the next week or two. My Volatility Matrix would likely already be throwing some clearer, stronger BUY signals if we were gonna crash tomorrow or early next week but currently it's Neutral.
By end of September though Volatility will be spiking in line with a bigger crash than we saw last week:
Gonna munch some popcorn and kick back for now, will add in some Volatility TPs when it's lookin like the next spike is starting. Still need to collect a bit more data on that front.
Happy harvests! B)
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We got a tiny bounce off S/R.
Retest of 3500 seems quite unlikely at this point. I'm thinkin it holds around 3300-3350 Monday before it breaks under and we get some waterfall mid-week.
Once Big Money leaves the game there's just not much Retail can do to save anything, especially as their accounts increasingly enter the red zone.
Doubt enough bullpower to get 350, expected 344-346 but rollover came at 3425... I would not get complacent about VIX, I reckon the cascade might start next week. 3m Robinhood new accounts loaded up on FAANGs and they will all sell when the price gets less than they paid in July...public participation phase will be a bloody mess IMO... price broke deep under TL and the retrace failed TL test.
John Murphy Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, Fig 4-10a, p.109. free pdf online!
Sintar123
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@DaddySawbucks, yep 350 is unlikely, most likely 343 for a double top.
ProfitHarvest
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@DaddySawbucks@Sintar123 Awesome! Yea, trend lines and price patterns can break down quickly in times like these haha.
@LotusTrading20, data. One of my best Pieces is the VVIX chart with 3 magenta strips I already posted above.
antrap77
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@ProfitHarvest@DaddySawbucks looks like the main players behind the scenes are fooling all the robinhooders here ...+ Some % in early trading so everybody is calling their ass and then they make it drop by 50 points...same game going on for a few days now...I believe is going to steadily drop day after day with few spikes up to make it look credible...then some serious drop here and there and all of a sudden we find the index below 3000 by election day...this is going down guys...OVER THE LIIIINE.....SMOKEY...mark it zero
ProfitHarvest
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@antrap77, Interesting! Yea around election gonna be a bottom but I do still think it climbs to peak in early 2021 (likely LH though) and then we can start our proper year long descent to early-mid 2022 low.
I'm lovin how this mid-Aug prediction is shapin up!
@ProfitHarvest, surprised to see significant drop in VIX at closure today...it has been very volatile today was expecting VIX to be stable or increase, any thoughts?
John Murphy Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, Fig 4-10a, p.109. free pdf online!