I believe we completed first downward move, let's observe market going up for the next week/s.
Subsequently, there will be slow downward move, it will be very painful as official recession will begin in a few weeks/months time.
Many businesses will go bankrupt and unemployment will skyrocket.
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Move up will happen up to around 2500$ or 2700$ then continue going down. Please observe the plot and exponential moving averages for SPX and DJI.
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Just to let you all know, it's an organized and supervised economic crisis. How is it possible that the spread of a coronavirus in China or Europecause the biggest drop in US stock market but over 80k infections in the US makes stock market to move up? Obviously it will be temporary and the market will keep going down for another 3-4 years as predicted on the plot.
My analysis was correct so far, I believe we are entering a downward move soon.
Unfortunately, SPX will keep going down for the next 3 years, many people will lose their jobs and we may have to wait another ±25 years for the market to move back to 2019/2020 highs :-/
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What Is A Wealth Cycle? The Difference Between Price & Value Explained
Crazy, but it could happen if we lose all control of coronavirus.
GuyJeb
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@sonatine185, More people die from the Flu than the Coronavirus. Media is having a lot of fun with this one.. But in today's world, thats all it takes to bring the market down..
nice to see some long-term analysis rather than the usual daytrading drivel, well done
satiev1
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Can you see a scenario where stocks make new all time highs Before the big crash?
Simon_says
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@satiev1, Yes I do see such scenario but the probability of stocks making new highs is very, very low!! Harm was already done while all the economical stats are not being released yet, which means that will drag the stock market down rather up. First deflation then inflation of hyperinflation as central banks will print tons of money!
crac1234
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@Simon_says, well there you go your very low chance
Buy when Z-score is in bluish-zone ±0 score and sell in red-zone ±9 score. For the moment we are in the accumulation zone, so be patient and get ready.