The S&P 500 will probably close at an all-time high today. It may even continue its current uptrend for some time. But the train will derail. I'm not a bear. I fully understand the FED has, can, and probably will continue to manipulate the stock market for a long time. It's just numbers on the screen for them. However, the FED may come under pressure/fire for their manipulation of the stock market and for making/choosing winners and losers.
Unlike the uptrend in the stock market, I see a clear downtrend in the real economy, the social fabric, and the quality of life for the common person. The number of people unhappy with the status quo is increasing. Something is fundamentally wrong, broken and not working. For a lot of folks, life just sucks.
A lot of jobs have disappeared. Bankruptcies are increasing. And price of things is going up. Friction, tension, violence, social and political unrest are on an uptrend (escalating). These are bad things that tend to lead to more bad things.
The S&P 500 uptrend and the real economy downtrend can only diverge for so long. Smart money is getting out of the stock market. Dump money is getting into the stock market.
What concerns me, chart-wise, is the elevator down path. That is, since 2018, when we dump, we dump harder and harder as we go forward in time. That's not a sign of confidence. It's a sign that the bears and easily take the elevator down, while the bulls take the stairs up.
I'm not a bear, but I'm certainly concerned, cautious, and careful.
@DaddySawbucks, by the end of the year, we might have another Lehman, given the wave of the properties on the mkt and the defaults of the MBS outstanding. Quite something to come indeed!
gotit
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@MountainTraderFX,
If in 2007/08 the gun pointed at the economy was loaded with rubber bullets, then by contrast, in 2020/21 the gun pointed at the economy is an army of tanks loaded with nuclear missiles for ammunition.
Quite something to come indeed!
dragon
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Well said
Purple_Trader
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Bearish divergence between the real economy and the market
ProSignalsFx
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Agree!
ChristinaKrechel
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Great analyses
One-World
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Thank u for speaking for the common people, no one wants to face the ugly reality because the richness doesn't care and the poors have to deceive thenselves to live.