S&P 500: Market at decision point between rally or mild pullback

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
If the "S&P 500" breaks above 2815, then the rally is going to continue strongly higher for months. But if the "S&P 500" declines and stays below 2725 until the end of August then there remains a risk of a large stock market crash.

  • Short-term the market is oversold and could break out above 2800 or a little higher towards 2815.
  • Mid-term the market is way too overbought. Therefore there is a risk of a pullback down to 2750 or lower.
  • Long-term the market is neutral at a tipping point here. Due to this divergence between the short-term and mid-term trends.
To further explain what I mean with the long-term decision point:

Either the market continues to act very bullish like this, going first a little lower and then a lot higher:

Or the market is going to behave very bearish like that, going first higher and then a lot lower:

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