WallStScalper
Short

What Are You Waiting For? Edge Of A Revolution

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
4933 53 44
You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you can not fool all the people all the time.
Abraham Lincoln

What are we waiting for?
Listen to the songs...then you'll know how to read the chart....

13 years of consolidation before a break out. Is that what we have been waiting for?
There is 391 bars between dotcom - subprime tops. Will we see history repeat itself?

13 is also a fib number and I'll be short from 2138
The top might only be a very short spike up and then puff - just like we've seen in the SPY             december 18th 2014 (See link to chart right underneath the text here).

Music at work:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Ng5muAAcg
http://open.spotify.com/track/2ZLiGnLYi4F11P2AqRPRLX
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYnuSsM7tRw
http://open.spotify.com/track/1yOMHh92qk9FR6BTvQyE5N

Fear not!
@BLawrenceM

BTW:
Take a fib measure from the dot.com top to bottom and add 13 to your fib... gives 666.80.

In numerology, the number 13 is considered to be the representation of perfection and completion. It stands to reason, then, that trying to improve upon perfection by adding a digit is a very bad idea indeed — your greed will be rewarded with bad luck.

For the religious or superstitious:
The meaning of numbers: The number 13:
http://www.biblestudy.org/bibleref/meaning-of-numbers-in-bible/13.html
666 is the devils number
Wall St Scalper
JohnKeverich
2 years ago
I doubt it will take this long for us to reach 2138 :)
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WallStScalper PRO JohnKeverich
2 years ago
The sooner the better:) Might be right after new year.
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Will Wong WallStScalper
2 years ago
Last year, the market sell off right after the new year. This could happen again.
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ps_kishore
2 years ago
I see you are mentioning a repeat of fall from 2138 based on Fibonicci. What is the funda behind 3+9+1 and 391? I couldnt follow that one.
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WallStScalper PRO ps_kishore
2 years ago
If you are a believer of fibonacci then 13 is the normal number or where things turn or continue . Try make the count at some of your charts ...you'll see often it happens
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WallStScalper PRO ps_kishore
2 years ago
Another "spooky" thing. Take a fib measure from the dot.com top to bottom and ad 13 to your fib... gives 666.80.. ;) Magic?
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ps_kishore WallStScalper
2 years ago
Bingo!!! you are right. No Magic. Its nature as they claim as in "Touch" FOX TV series (2012). Will look out for 2138.
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WallStScalper PRO ps_kishore
2 years ago
Thanks for your feedback ... Let's see what coming... :)
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jeremyb WallStScalper
2 years ago
I used the fibonacci time tool , and..................... check it baby..I see a BIG SELL OFF for April 2015 : https://www.tradingview.com/v/lL26QHGM/
2015 : PREPARE FOR A KRACH ON SP500.... Objective : 1525 or more
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CosmicDust
2 years ago
I see 2360 by Dec 2015 as shown on your chart.
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WallStScalper PRO CosmicDust
2 years ago
Thx! for feedback but it's where the fib line is at 2138 - the 1.168 extension. Price action tends to break out of a wedge formation before end of apac.
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chartmojo PRO
2 years ago
pretty powerful music there BL..I now know how to read the chart..it's abundantly clear
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TomPip
2 years ago
If the top resistance breaks (which i think it will), we won't have a small puff up. It will be the greatest rally ever seen for decades to come...
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WallStScalper PRO TomPip
2 years ago
Thx for feedback! Yes fully agree! The next stop would then be the 261.8 fib .... and that's a rally into also printing money like there's no tomorrow (haven't they already?). Even though Bankster Ben have had his shot at it.
Gold bugs will have their rally too coz then it will no longer be possible to hide the inflation by changing statistical methods constantly.
But I'm pretty sure that we'll see a stop and retrace at the 1.618 fib.

Nothing last forever. Weather we'll see a currency reset, a new Bretton Wood system or fall of empire or business as usual.... time will tell. One of the reasons why the Roman Empire dissolved was due to money printing the old fashion way by cutting edges of the silver coins. At the very end it's a matter of being able to deceive the people. As long as they have the perception that fiat money is worth the same no matter the the size of the monetary base and wealth is not transferred.... the current system last and we will have "peace in our time" The question is... are we on the edge of a revolution?
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andrius.lietuvis WallStScalper
2 years ago
If flow of produced goods and services is the same as printed money will inflation will came? No.
If GDP is above expectations do stocks fall? No
If unemployment is falling do stocks fall? No
If buyers are more than sellers do stocks fall? No
When buyers are more than sellers? If I knew I would be millionaire :-)

Couple examples of recent past:
1. FED taper (2014-): buyers vanished as of fear of taper as of prediction about others will vanish - stocks plunged
2. FED "considerable time" language (2014-12-17): buyers stepped back as of fear of language change as of fear of pull back as of technical sings (MACD for instance 2014-12-04)

What to fear of next?
Q4 GDP record - I think it will approve expectations
Inflation report - it will be moderate
Unemployment report - it will be good (unemployment will fall)
Next Fed meeting - it will be sad nothing new, if nothing new will others step back before report, doubtful market usually do not behave in the same manner twice in a row

What to fear of next? Can you give me a hint? Please.
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WallStScalper PRO andrius.lietuvis
2 years ago
Well as I stated above "Fear Not". I don't know what "people fear. In these FED controlled/rigged times where HFT-companies have scanners looking out for special words for weather to buy like crazy og plunge the market. Maybe humans imperfection cuz behind the computers are humans that can fail (and we see a so called fat finger (if you believe in that excuse) But as long as you have people in desired place - for you and they can pay their rent and accept to be brainwashed not to take advantage of 500 years of enlightment. I guess there is nothing to fear. Or let me rephrase that ....FED and a totalitarian regime ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dOY4LG_jhk ) have nothing to fear. It's when the shit starts to hit the fan complacency shift in to fear rather quickly. What will be the trigger?
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WallStScalper PRO WallStScalper
2 years ago
continued... The trigger could be when the poor (the 99%) have nothing left to lose and realize they have be deceived.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGk5ioEXlIM.

I'd say as long as the american dream is still being believed in .... there is nothing to fear: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ4SSvVbhLw When the majority realize that they have lost everything including self respect... then Nickleback will be heard on their smartphones.....and we'll probably see ..... We're On the edge of revolution. But we are not to fear anything even then... cuz we'll have everything to gain and nothing to lose.
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andrius.lietuvis WallStScalper
2 years ago
Thanks, I appreciate you opinion and understand that you state, sure gap between poor and wealth is widening, but ...

Do poor really care about stocks? Almost all stocks are in possession of Top ten wealthiest people (link added)
http://www2.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.html
"The top ten percent have 81% to 94% of stocks, bonds, trust funds, and business equity, and almost 80% of non-home real estate"

But even if some kind of revolution would start how I could see it evolving? Consumer confidence report? Retail sails fall? Tech patter formation?
I think you agree if retail sails are increasing at 5% it is not a revolution sign, doesn't it? I think you agree there is no pattern we could state "we are in downtrend" ?

Don't miss understand me, I do not claim to by SPY. In fact I look for moments when it could be profitable to short
XHB, anti gartley

Could it be "Evening star"?



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WallStScalper PRO andrius.lietuvis
2 years ago
Yes you have a point there... "do poor really car..."! But it also corresponding well to what I'm trying so say in my comment to you. As long as the elite can keep us carme ( as obedient workers as George Carlin puts it) they keep on competing each other.
But if they become detached for reality.. (on their way already maybe???) The fan might end up with some greasy stuff on ;)
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elp TomPip
2 years ago
looks like its setting up similar to 2012?
snapshot
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WallStScalper PRO elp
2 years ago
Thanks for feedback! That could also be a solution. The minor 3rd wave in the major wave 5 (EW-terms) will then be on it's way. I can't rule that out at the moment. There are though signs on the weekly RSI that it has troubles in making higher high and has for well over a year had negative divergens and never reached former highs at all. But neither can it be ruled out that FED starts printing money again. Nothing in this rigged game can be ruled out. We have to wait and see. It is all a matter of manage risk and a 1.168 fib extension is usually performing. I'm only looking at possibilities not calling the top. That's why i'm stating above....: Will we see history repeat itself?
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elp
2 years ago
I am sure you have read about someone buying SPY well above all time highs in the last minute of treading hrs Thursday. Price was rejected at a center line of a monthly channel. i min chart
snapshot
Monthly chart,
snapshot
Someone only wants this market to go up, until they don´t.
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WallStScalper PRO elp
2 years ago
Yes I saw it and made this chart:
Stops taken out in SPY
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elp
2 years ago
Noticed you mentioned the 113 fib. I had a similar draw from 2002 lows to 2007 highs the 1.113 is at the 2009 lows and the -0.618 is at current highs
snapshot
Also looking at a log chart of the S&P500 going back to 1950 the S&P has reacjhed it´s center line where is been previous support and resistance. Monthly chart
snapshot
same chart on weekly scale
snapshot
Some big rallies have resulted from trading above it and big crashes too from being resistance or not able to hold it as support,
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WallStScalper PRO elp
2 years ago
Yes I follow you all the way and have also made these 2 charts:
Santa came early to town but hasn
and
Santa could get stuck in the Chimney at the ABCD 2074 target!!

The only thing where we do not agree upon is....I would take the former low 666,79 and the 2007 top to measure the possible swing extension... but your way of doing it fits also well into the two charts and targets I've made as well as yours... so no harm done. It proves to me that either is the market rigged by FED and PPT or it is fully predictable. It's only a matter of knowing the right formula. Thank you for your inspiring inputs and feedback.
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YaKa PRO
2 years ago
Good post. thx
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WallStScalper PRO YaKa
2 years ago
Thank you for your feedback. Appreciated!
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chartmojo PRO WallStScalper
2 years ago
excellent post....I feel like the grim bear reaper following my prey ...letting the bull get fatter and fatter on apparently imaginary food...what a great meal it will make when it goes to sleep. I still think we bounce..not quite to a new high..then the big harvest ...the big sell hits.
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WallStScalper PRO chartmojo
2 years ago
2 predators sharing pray and feeling the same way. Thanks Chartmojo for comment!
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CoopsCharting
2 years ago
I did a similar chart a while back. Reverse fib sequence from major market peaks before crashes: 1987, 2000, 2008, ?.......You can see that in this case time between 2000 and 2008 will be the same as 2008 to the next peak (because the 2008+5 was a complete elliot wave cycle followed by another bullish cycle similar to the one in the 90's which was a fib sub-cycle within the larger pattern). I however, had my peak in late April or early May also at 2138 (from basic fib extensions). But more or less we have the same thoughts.
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CoopsCharting CoopsCharting
2 years ago
Additionally, I place the bottom of the next correction at 1250 (or possibly an intermediate bottom at 1400). You see, the 2008 crash was the first full 61.8% retracement since the 1987 crash (it almost always happens one way or another). The 2003 bottom only retraced to 50% (so it wasn't "done").
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WallStScalper PRO CoopsCharting
2 years ago
Thank you so much for sharing your thoughts ... So nice to realize there are people as crazy as I - doing the similar and look at things the same way... Let's continue sharing thoughts for common good Thx!
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YaKa PRO
2 years ago
if 2135 without breakout, this could be the path:
snapshot
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WallStScalper PRO YaKa
2 years ago
Yes indeed... as a backtest of broken support. I could see that coming definitely. Thanks for sharing thoughts!
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chartmojo PRO WallStScalper
2 years ago
BL is right on. Been around and traded three or four of these big stock cycles...I hibernate on the way up..(retired) the fact that I'm here yet again is a technical indicator symbolic of patient bears waking up hungry, smelling fresh prey just outside...a herd of bulls who congregated on the rumor that all the bears in the land were dead..and it was the time of the bull. What they forgot was that the rancher only needs one bull...and the bears and the rancher were just letting them fatten up. It's ok to trade with the bull ....you just want to meet and greet the bear when he comes out of the cave...and be on good terms. Your early friends are often your best. One could lay out technicals for days...but sometimes metaphors are called for.

Behind the red cape....the matador has his sword.

If a Bull finds himself in the arena...he should wonder maybe, why by intelligent design is he there in the first place?
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Leo.Ash
2 years ago
Agree with your target at 2140 level for SPY and for DAX i give between 10300 - 10400 target. After that i will get a big fat short position and wait for a fast deep in the next 2 months, until the end of February 2015. The low from 16th november will not hold and we will even lower in the next deep, because we are in a megaphone formation.
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Leo.Ash Leo.Ash
2 years ago
Sorry i mean 16th October low
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jeremyb
2 years ago
I'm waiting for that fuckin break out ! ^^
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jeremyb
2 years ago
check my graph, it validate your graph :
2015 : PREPARE FOR A KRACH ON SP500.... Objective : 1525 or more
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call.wstreet
2 years ago
Sorry Cpt Wall Street just wait when i jump in i m Wstreet. and BOOM, Losers come like after rain. I jump in the Game 20150125 so take after i show Buff and Microway Boom and Ninja Generation Die. oNe DAY
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Wolf
2 years ago
I really appreciate this kind of ideas who open very interesting discussions.
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WallStScalper PRO Wolf
2 years ago
I fully agree! This is how we learn ... by sharing and by giving a comment... feedback in any back ... thx for yours...appreciated
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aj49robertson
2 years ago
This is the best chart I've seen all year. Wow
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WallStScalper PRO aj49robertson
2 years ago
Thank you very much for your kind words. So far it looks like it's playing out. Thanks for your comment! BM
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I see this in the cards... march/april will definitely be interesting http://gyazo.com/bd90e621b385f357bedc2fc5f5558bde
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aj49robertson WallStScalper
2 years ago
Looks mighty good for me. I've scaled almost 8k into $TZA
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