What are we waiting for?
Listen to the songs...then you'll know how to read the chart....
13 years of consolidation before a break out. Is that what we have been waiting for?
There is 391 bars between dotcom - subprime tops. Will we see history repeat itself?
13 is also a fib number and I'll be short from 2138
The top might only be a very short spike up and then puff - just like we've seen in the SPY december 18th 2014 (See link to chart right underneath the text here).
Music at work:
Take a fib measure from the dot.com top to bottom and add 13 to your fib... gives 666.80.
In numerology, the number 13 is considered to be the representation of perfection and completion. It stands to reason, then, that trying to improve upon perfection by adding a digit is a very bad idea indeed — your greed will be rewarded with bad luck.
For the religious or superstitious:
The meaning of numbers: The number 13:
666 is the devils number
Gold bugs will have their rally too coz then it will no longer be possible to hide the inflation by changing statistical methods constantly.
But I'm pretty sure that we'll see a stop and retrace at the 1.618 fib.
Nothing last forever. Weather we'll see a currency reset, a new Bretton Wood system or fall of empire or business as usual.... time will tell. One of the reasons why the Roman Empire dissolved was due to money printing the old fashion way by cutting edges of the silver coins. At the very end it's a matter of being able to deceive the people. As long as they have the perception that fiat money is worth the same no matter the the size of the monetary base and wealth is not transferred.... the current system last and we will have "peace in our time" The question is... are we on the edge of a revolution?
If GDP is above expectations do stocks fall? No
If unemployment is falling do stocks fall? No
If buyers are more than sellers do stocks fall? No
When buyers are more than sellers? If I knew I would be millionaire :-)
Couple examples of recent past:
1. FED taper (2014-): buyers vanished as of fear of taper as of prediction about others will vanish - stocks plunged
2. FED "considerable time" language (2014-12-17): buyers stepped back as of fear of language change as of fear of pull back as of technical sings (MACD for instance 2014-12-04)
What to fear of next?
Q4 GDP record - I think it will approve expectations
Inflation report - it will be moderate
Unemployment report - it will be good (unemployment will fall)
Next Fed meeting - it will be sad nothing new, if nothing new will others step back before report, doubtful market usually do not behave in the same manner twice in a row
What to fear of next? Can you give me a hint? Please.
I'd say as long as the american dream is still being believed in .... there is nothing to fear: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ4SSvVbhLw When the majority realize that they have lost everything including self respect... then Nickleback will be heard on their smartphones.....and we'll probably see ..... We're On the edge of revolution. But we are not to fear anything even then... cuz we'll have everything to gain and nothing to lose.
Do poor really care about stocks? Almost all stocks are in possession of Top ten wealthiest people (link added)
"The top ten percent have 81% to 94% of stocks, bonds, trust funds, and business equity, and almost 80% of non-home real estate"
But even if some kind of revolution would start how I could see it evolving? Consumer confidence report? Retail sails fall? Tech patter formation?
I think you agree if retail sails are increasing at 5% it is not a revolution sign, doesn't it? I think you agree there is no pattern we could state "we are in downtrend" ?
Don't miss understand me, I do not claim to by SPY. In fact I look for moments when it could be profitable to short
But if they become detached for reality.. (on their way already maybe???) The fan might end up with some greasy stuff on ;)