The gap must fill. Short not until it does imo. Measured Move projected with price bands, +302 pips for a 1:1 move. Gap may fill Friday. Expect weakness before FOMC, then a stupid bullup as follows:
7/27 1400 rate decision; initial ludicrous pop followed within minutes by a selloff. Price declines until ~1425 in falling wedge. At ~1428 EST J Powell will step up to the mic and make soothing comments. Irrational mad bullishness follows, rising price in giant arc up to close.
Thursday after the hike could turn into a bloodbath. Last time bad news was so good they bought it next day. This time, who knows? Don't get caught short in these nutty rallies.
The Shark Cypher is a giant W with right leg taller than left. Other variants include crab, nenstar, etc; nomenclature based on leg heights. It is a BEARISH construct which usually leads to lower prices after break from right leg. There is the short entry.
Included RSI, Stoch and Stoch/RSI indicators for comparision to each other, these are interesting. All approaching overbought. Target: The gap to fill below at 3796. Price very unlikely to fall below lower BollBand imo.
This is STILL A BEAR MARKET; all rallies are setup for lower prices ahead, until proved otherwise. IMO the LOTY is still not in; could be mistaken, let us see what madness transpires in October... GLTA!
Flipped 5 moar calls for 200 bones. Early am chop should give way to bulls imo
Comment
⋅
Flipped 20 calls for 500 bones was dicey lol hangin on by nails
Comment
⋅
OMG look how it drops ffs i took 1k of other ppls money and now they vaporized it, do not hold more than a minute lol!
Comment
⋅
So unstable behaves like just before a break down. No big positions today folks tread lightly with care.
Comment
⋅
Rejection at 4012 might be all she wrote. Watching it. No pos.
Comment
⋅
Yeah starts to look bearish again. Measured move completed in early trade, probably just about done imo.
Comment
⋅
Flipped calls lucky as hell to get out. Got a damned space needle; a shooting star. Rally done IMO.
Comment
⋅
Not entering big short yet, got an impulsive minute 5-EW in day; short if it gives a retracement EOD.
Comment
⋅
Bears are back in town... stepped away to work on house and come back to find this mess, lol.
Comment
⋅
Getting a weak rally flipped 4 calls, looking for short entry
Comment
⋅
Opened 4 SQQQ 7/29 46.5c debit 2.45x400. Small swing pos for weekend.
Comment
⋅
Opoening ITM spread, watch they close above 300: -2 Jul-22-22 $300 Puts +2 Jul-29-22 $302.5 Puts ITM
Comment
⋅
Added a put spread and another SQQQ call. Opened 200 SPXS and 200 SQQQ, short 7/22 expiring call option $47 strikes. Roll EOD if needed.
Comment
⋅
Added two more spreads now in 5 put spreads and 5 sqqq calls. About as much as I want to carry over weekend.
Getting late near EOD, if you load up here and there is a late rally you'll be holding bag looking at weekend, don't like to do that.
Trade active
⋅
Added spreads and SQQQ calls EOD, holding 15 over weekend. Will see if we get Red Monday.
Trade active
⋅
Closed all shorts on early weakness. Probly gonna get a bump at FOMC.
Flipped ten calls for fun & profit. Travel day, bbl eod.
Comment
⋅
Terrific chop, price swings up/down >$1 on QQQ. Stayin out atm. Might be stupid bullishness before fomc, idk. Could crack anytime too. Pure crapshoot.
Comment
⋅
See-saw day. Got a little from it. Tues probly be bully against all logic and reason. No pos.
Expect some weakness before 2pm Weds, whipsaw on rate hike, then stupid irrational bull move EOD Weds. There be the short entry imo.
Comment
⋅
Not chasing the short, expect whipping.
Trade active
⋅
Flipping calls on weakness
Comment
⋅
Chopppyyyyy... will it find support? No shorts yet
Comment
⋅
Treasuries inverted
Comment
⋅
Lotta pressure. Coulda shorted QQQ after all but the other indexes holding up pretty well. Probly get some recovery by EOD IMO.
Comment
⋅
Most or nearly all the weakness is NQ. Look DJI, RUT nearly flat, little changed. Market is mulling over prospects, they deciding whether to sell this rally and dump it or get more invested. Seems still undecided.
Comment
⋅
WMT down ten bucks, but 3M +9 lol. Action packed ERs
Trade active
⋅
Flipped few calls on SPY, DIA EOD on teeny lift. Barely worth it.
Comment
⋅
Shoulda kept the calls, lol. They like the lousy ERs AH huge pop. Go figure.
Comment
⋅
Yeah nuts. Wait for 2pm, gap didn't fill in an hour probly fill thursday.
Comment
⋅
No pullback after 2 hrs. Probly stay up until 2pm. Sitting out again.
Comment
⋅
Nothing makes sense, logic and reason are inapplicable. Look, Goog and Msft missed, they bull. Shop guidance sucked, it bulls. Meta comes next, probly miss... and bull ffs.
Trade active
⋅
Flipped calls on first reaction rolled into puts closed, watch!
Comment
⋅
Gosh a very muted reaction; is the price exhausted? All wait for JPowell...
Trade active
⋅
Flipped few calls again. Waiting.
Comment
⋅
TBVH what makes logical sense is market should sell on big hike and inverted T-bills. But it doesn't... hopium?! News already baked into price; Tues selloff was the reaction, perhaps? Risky....
Comment
⋅
Took 2 calls and closed, fades, idk...
Comment
⋅
Ofc it pops after you close lol!
Comment
⋅
Flipped 20 puts yay
Comment
⋅
Flipped ten more spy 400p. Pretty well satisfied to have made bank on both calls and puts on an FOMC day; a first!
Comment
⋅
Absolutely nuts. Holding nothing, but probly sells tomorrow, last time it did this it bulled again for two days so not loading up on anything. This could be the high point, or it could have another 100 pips in it. Nuts!
@dyellowflash, instead of shorting the mkt directly, i filled some vxx..
DaddySawbucks
⋅
@dyellowflash, gl, these been disappointing as even when it sells, vix doesn't jump much, because has been orderly. oughta get some limit down days in the final crush imo.
hungry_hippo
⋅
You really need to go back to looking at 3 hr futures charts
DaddySawbucks
⋅
@hungry_hippo, I really need to stop buying the wrong thing ffs
CapeAfrican
⋅
Article yesterday said trading volumes are as low as 2020 -- so big moves on small volume...seems retail is buying ....big money not so much?? Fed and GDP this week - almost nervous to day trade that??
hungry_hippo
⋅
Really odd day, small caps usually trade with retail and WMT is a Dow component but it's tech that tanks, lol. More than likely because so many of them lose money.
The problem with these earnings guidance is that you never know when they'll come out. In any case wait until NQ RSI goes oversold on my chart before you go long. Probably happens afterhours on GOOGL/MSFT/TXN earnings,
DaddySawbucks
⋅
@hungry_hippo, Aye thinkin gonna get a lift weds, missed this drop, watchin RTY discouraged my shorts. NQ went off nice, grrr
hungry_hippo
⋅
@DaddySawbucks, happens to me all the time, right idea but wrong stock. I daytraded but bailed too early, lol.