The 2 previous Stock Market (not economic) recessions lasted 920 days & 511 days respectively. This time around 33 days.
The more you have to lower rates the more you have to lower rates
The more you print the more you need to print
The more you QE the More you have to QE
The more you helicopter Dollars the more you have to helicopter dollars.
Do you see the trend here?
If you were alive to witness the previous 2 recession you will remember the constant calls for a double dip recession. This time you hear buy the dip dumb dumb. If there was ever a time for a double dip recession this is the time that is most likely.
The mechanics of markets don't allow for huge losses. Markets have to get ready to drop, this time they had no chance to get out. Remember it takes months for a a big fund to put on or off a position without pushing price up or down on themselves. 33 days is certainly not enough time to properly position themselves.
With the help of Gov't "Stimulus For The People" & FED's endles "Lending facilties with endless trillions of dollars in a matter of months They now have he opportunity to properly sell off the market since 272 days have now past since the prior top in the market when COVID disaster began.
Food for thought.
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The Bull market continues after the 33-day bear market.
Well but the definition of recession is 2 consecutive qtrs of negative growth; you cannot have a 33-day recession. IMO the recession will begin in 2021.
COVID crisis started the ball rolling downhill. Foreclosures will accelerate it, when debt relief ends in Feb. The Bear will growl soon IMO.
@DaddySawbucks yeah the federal moratorium on evictions and foreclosures will be up by the end of the year. That will leave 3 weeks before Biden is sworn in.
@Drip_Drop, I have learned that economic recessions reveal weaknesses that are unknown or they are right in front of our faces yet no one understands it.
For example FAS 157 in 2008 which no one still talks about as a root cause that led to other cracks falling apart. Perhaps this time its the Big elephant in the
room COVID that is under estimated and greatly discounted by many. The Virus doesn't compromise or politicize. As cases rise exponentially, April
vaccine is light year away. Could this be a cause for a drop in the market? Who knows.
That being said it is always best to be neutral till the weakest crack breaks. Could be evictions, could be high yield bonds could be many things. We don't
know. Nor is it our job TO know bc it requires guessing. Guessing is deadly to portfolios. Guessing is for degenerate gamblers. Yet all over the net everyone
is selling what i call "cute stories". Cute stories lead people to believe that GUESSING is a requirement to make money. False. Guessing kills accounts.
Reducing exposure, finding good risk reward points managing the trade is what investing is all about. Near all time highs with an on going recession and stagnating
prolonged ongoing economic recession with a stock market funded by endless trillions of "stimulus for the people" greatly increases risk to a crack breaking.
I don't want to preach, but I have a problem with the way most of these "experts" sell stories for clicks, views, subscriptions etc.. bc it misleads people directly &
indirectly. I am only trying to raise awareness. I wish someone had told me that early on in my investing quest for knowledge before losing my Ars! :(
NewbieDownUnder
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@RealMacro, I love your perspectives, thanks for sharing.
Iliketoplayafiddle
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@RealMacro, Covid19 is 100% political. In australia and new zealand and countries that decided to do something about it right up front. The virus is under control. In places where it was said it was too hard to do anything, covid19 is out of control. That was a political choice.
RealMacro
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@DaddySawbucks, Please read it again. I said "STOCK MARKET RECESSION (not economic)" I was afraid people will miss read it.
Economic and Stock market recession are not the same thing. Sure Economic recession was over way before stock market
recovered in the past. We did not have 920 day recession in 2000 to 2003 when the stock market bottomed. Right?
NewbieDownUnder
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@DaddySawbucks, well said, I agree 100%. This is the start of a very long game still to come..
COVID crisis started the ball rolling downhill. Foreclosures will accelerate it, when debt relief ends in Feb. The Bear will growl soon IMO.