We accurately predicted the current correction two weeks ago, but we couldn't have foreseen how anemic it has been! Remember, we can use signals to predict direction, but we can't usually predict depth or length of a direction.
Supporting the anemic nature of the correction is VIX-VVIX divergence (Tradingview free isn't letting me show my drawings on the secondary panes, so you'll just have to look at it yourself). But this type of divergence has a 4/4 recent history of predicting both local bottoms and tops, including the current top.
Multiple supporting signals support an S&P 500 reversal around 3820: (1) trend line convergence; (2) key fib level; (3) VIX-VVIX divergence and (4) max pain theory. Max pain theory states that related index SPY will converge to the level causing the most pain for options holders (calls and puts). Right now, that level is near 3820, so it wouldn't be shocking to see that level around Wednesdays option expiration day. SPY has done a good job of converging to max pain levels in cycles past. Another somewhat related signal suggesting bullish action in the near future is my 10 Year Rates analysis (linked) which - 2 weeks ago - was suggesting a correction and is now suggesting bullish sentiment. I will be buying April call options with a 3900 strike when my 3820-Zone target is achieved assuming these trends in related assets hold.
Of course, max pain is dynamic (it was 3800 on Friday), so by Friday 2/26, max pain level could be significantly higher.
Wow, one of the best charts I've made, and that uptrend line has held. Should have stuck with it after March 16. I would've weathered that 3840 scare but then profited much more. This is interesting and suggests 130 more points of upside?