After trianlge completes, look for another corrective structure. If the corrective structure is down, then this means the trend is still up. The corrective structure will probably last only 3 to 5 days.
I think the Market is over-valued. I'm on HOLD for this market, until I see prices return to reasonable values.
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"Corrective structure is down" means bull flag. A-B-C-D, where A is up. BC is down, and CD is up.
I'm hoping the 200 moving average smooths out all this "non-sense" and provides a long-term direction to this market. Too many impulses lately, to make sense. I realize its all about interest rates and bond prices.
I'm currently a structure trader. That means I don't always believe the support and resistance lines (or areas). I generally try to find some small structures to help confirm the support and resistance lines. Support and resistances are kind of like high and low tide marks on a beach. Sometimes, the tide is higher than normal; sometimes it's lower than normal. The variability has to do with the order book, momentum, hidden trades and micro-information in the market which is non-public (hidden). Also, pin bars are nice, but a single pin bar, alone, without any structural confirmation, is not a reliable reversal indicator, at least to me.
A triangle is corrective structure. A triangle is acts like a doji. You can use the long-term trend to predict how a triangle will finish. But sometimes, medium-term and short-term effect will cause the triangle to make a false exit (wrong direction from long-term trend).
Therefore, I look for micro-structures (short-term bear and bull flag - pennants), to help confirm the direction of the triangle, if it's not behaving according to the long-term trend.
For my friend in Zurich, I hope this helps. I am studying wave theory, but I see a lot of holes in wave theory. Nevertheless, it's another tool I can put into my trading kit. Best.
According to CNBC Art Cash was the "only" reason for the late correction market on close orders to the sell side with 3,5 billions. Art Cash on CNBC said, that there is a kind of "rebalancing" means money from equties needs to be shif back to bonds.
What do you think about this?
SwissView
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Hi Bob,
i really like what you are saying here. Maybe if ever you have time - can you tell a few words more about that after the triangel completes another corrective structure to the downside (what we see right now) is saying that the trend is still up?
A triangle is corrective structure. A triangle is acts like a doji. You can use the long-term trend to predict how a triangle will finish. But sometimes, medium-term and short-term effect will cause the triangle to make a false exit (wrong direction from long-term trend).
Therefore, I look for micro-structures (short-term bear and bull flag - pennants), to help confirm the direction of the triangle, if it's not behaving according to the long-term trend.
For my friend in Zurich, I hope this helps. I am studying wave theory, but I see a lot of holes in wave theory. Nevertheless, it's another tool I can put into my trading kit. Best.