@SimonPhillips, Consolidate before going lower. Or it just breaks this level and we dump another 2k in Dow next week. I have been watching the VIX on the 1 hour and it looks like we are forming a bullish flag. The VIX is going to spike more fueling the downside. This trend will be broken soon enough.
SimonPhillips
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@thesilverbullet, Probably i'm still a buyer long term. There isn't and structural problem and 10 year yields haven't rallied high enough to cause a problem yet
thesilverbullet
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@SimonPhillips, When Dow hits 20k I'll start looking at changing the direction of my current bias. This correction could literally play out over the next 3-4 weeks with Dow testing 20k. These 1000 point drops are more explosive than anyone expected. I think we get a day with a 2-3k point swing in one day and that's when I'll think about switching my short term trade strategy. Ill be looking to see the Dow open at like 22k and test 20k in the same day with the closing price around 21k. I have a theory that this correction is necessary to test the current state of the financial system. Things are happening behind the scenes right now that we don't know about, investors are fleeing a lot of assets and making 100s of billions of dollars worth of adjustments to portfolios.. just cross our fingers there isn't a Lehman moment brewing or we are going to see Dow 16k and under.. I don't want that. I want to buy at Dow 19-20k and target 30k Dow by 2022.
SimonPhillips
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@thesilverbullet, A little more downside to come maybe another 5%. I welcome this volatility and in my view its simple correcting down from a very very overbought condition, as markets do. No need for panic at all. I'd be very surprised if the current highs are not taken out this year. The economy is in ok shape. Lehman was caused by years of land price speculation, greed and debt levels that could not be paid back the resulting debt crisis in 2008 caused that depression and severe structural problems in the financial system. With Dodd frank only just being banished we are years from that sort of environment. This type of correction happens a lot as economic systems recover allowing for the normalisation of rates, people panic. Soon enough they will realise that corporate earnings are rising, taxes are going down, the higher rates increasing will increase bank profitability allowing for more credit to flow into the economy causing more expansion. Anyway its certainly exciting times and will be interesting see what levels bring out the still massive amounts of cause on the sidelines waiting to buy up assets. Cheers
@SimonPhillips, "Soon enough they will realise that corporate earnings are rising, taxes are going down, the higher rates increasing will increase bank profitability allowing for more credit to flow into the economy causing more expansion" YES! and this is also why commodities are a good play right now as well. Cheers