is still trading inside it´s log scale channel. Until it price closes for the month below the channel, price has an upside bias imo
. Connecting the tops of monthly closes and from observation the bottom monthly closes held support which makes me belive this is a valid channel. Looking left of the chart the 90´s bull
market and the mid 2000´s bull
market traded in a similar channel. The range of 2138-2149 has to be clearly broken on a monthly close and hold for price to go higher with upside targets at 2700 and 3300. I am not saying to go long at current highs. But if there is witnessed buying on the dips, participation in the long would be the trade to take. IMO
there are three setups that could take place. 1st, price breaks out of highs and goes on a historic rally. 2nd price fails to break out of highs and corrects where August lows could be retested and most likely broken. 3rd price continues to grind sideways like the early 90´s to burn off it´s bullmarket so it can break out to new highs.
Why do I think there could be an exteded bullmarket. With low interest rates this could continue to fuel the markets. If the FED raises rates it will be a token rate hike something that would not be a market killer. Also President Obama´s budget has passed where there is no debt ceiling until March of 2017. With no debt ceiling worries until March 2017 and if the FED keeps rates as they are or even a token rate hike the market has the potential to go higher. Plus it seems everyone and their brother is wants to short the market. The algos will go after the easy stops first where for the last month the easy stop hunt has been to the upside.
FWIW, I use the views as a sentiment gauge. The more people agree with this chart and a higher than usual view count I would be suspect of the long setup. Like the COT
view I shared along with a bear
view. The bear
view has more engagements than the bull
view which lead me to believe the rally could continue in october. This is a very small sample and is most like bs.