orange: SPX blue: SPX divided by Yield 30YUS Treasuries. Second pan organe: absolut Yield 30Y US Treasuries
Comparing SPX with the US-30YTreasuriey Yield something special on the way. Never before we saw such a strong rising of the Yield. More than 4% in short time and SPX did only a correction of 25%.
Naturally: Yield Curve now is descending and everyone is expecting lower yields by the FED and the market. But at last: pure speculation.
The massive rising of the yield means falling Bond Prices. At what we will see, is not very amazing: Lots of Banks in trouble end of year, when they have to take the market prices into the balance sheets of their Nostro Bonds. And this will go on: Primary Dealers have to buy back their lended securitieres for nominal Prices and afterwards lower market prices. Will also bring a lot of banks in trouble, when they will make again repos
All over all: The FED will put down their Fed funds rate very fast. But Market will not follow for sure, because enormous risk on bank market. At the end: For sure we will see sinking Dollar and rising inflation. And: Last blow up in SPX, before further strong falling prices