bryonss

SPX and most probable of four possibilities

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
The blue line is most probable. Since no recession, the red line is very unlikely and the orange line is also unlikely. The green line seems to be losing probability fast.
By 2020 the market will decide whether to continue in the channel started in 2009 or if it will continue in the channel started in 2018.
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Green line is the exuberance-maximus, thanks to Fed cancelling rate hikes.
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Dip was steeper than my worst case line.
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Now the Orange line is looking most probable. Not likely to go back up to blue or green lines.
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Since all four lines are possible, it makes me wonder, how predictive is charting?
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In spite of the down day today, I still think the green line is possible.
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