Rally is done folks. Fascinating how perfectly the 21 April bars pattern fits onto the weak retracement rally to right shoulder.
DJI gone off 1K is NOT bullish. SandP down 4%, NQ just tanked > QQQ gave up 15 bucks in a day. Can you say CRASH?!
Yet I still see folks putting out ideas about new rallies to test ATH. Buying this 'dip' will only disappoint, lol. Do not be a bagholder!
So many talking about "where it goes now the bottom is in" is pure delusion. This is a BEAR Market. Bottom is NOT in. Possible local Low in October? How long it takes and where the final low comes is pure guesswork. Might be... April?!
Worst is yet to come IMO. Gotta have monster gaps down, trip limitdown halts, -3K days with true capitulation, VIX spike. This is NOT a good time to invest in risk assets folks. If you are not a shortseller then GTFO this nutty market. Big boys WILL take most or all of your money if you try to buy this beast.
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I took 7 calls on SQQQ and 8 spy puts fri eod. look to add near the open for a flush. might bottom out for near-term monday, watch it, gone oversold but can get more so
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Closed O/N shorts in open, +1k. Might get a rally soon off oversold. Short the rallies.
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OFC bears can grind more for a few hours flipped some calls but holding nothing.
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Flipped 4 qqq calls looks like gap fills
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Early trade always rapid changes and chop. Early on if calls go ITM I close em. Can fill and spill again
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Watch futurz. O/N NQ traded 150 pips lower than current price 0950am. Might see more selling before bounce.
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O/N low ES traded to 4010. Let's see if it goes there. Sometimes the panic is sunday night and it never gets that low. Pure guess now. Bears may be near exhaustion.
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Flipping calls. Starts to lift. Probly want to close ur shortz imo
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Probly gonna get some green later today or Tues. Red > Green soon imo. Went oversold, due a technical lift.
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Not loading up on calls just yet, still some grinding to go imo. LOTD might be in, wait n see. Made money on calls, chilling atm, no pos.
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LOL went for a coffee and it tanked while I poured. So chancy!
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Hard game to play imo. Fast markets can wipe you out. Gonna try a few calls here, GL!
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Flipped it. So dicey. Prefer to sit out, benched me.
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Made a bit more off calls from the retest of lows. Can sink again easily. Stepping off until EOD.
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People ask why does it go up and down? How high up will it go? How low will it go? I do not know these imponderables. Only I know this, what drives the equity market:
GREED HOPE FEAR
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Took no trades yet been to hardware store I traded cash for nuts bolts and bars. Good trade!
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Flipped a dozen puts. See where this goes. Not chasing it, could see some bargain hunting and short covering lift it again.
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Well it did sell a bit more then we got a wee bounce. At some point we gonna get a more convincing rally.
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Flipped ten SPY puts. Feels like it might get some relief from pressure, EOD can sell down more or bounce, 50-50.
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Holding 300 bear shares, closed puts.
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long weekend coming might be risk-off before the holiday. EOD bounce was throttled and crushed today. holding spxs, sqqq
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Rally didn't last an hour. Holding short.
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Gap filled, might try again to rally; closed bear shares showing green. Always be there if you need em!
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Really expected more of a fourth wave here, this was pretty weak. See if the bulls rebel again.
No plunging today.
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3980 seems to be hunting support. Flipped a few calls. Watching.
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Whippy. Useless to gamble in DZ. Watch, wait. Short if it rallies Thurday imo.
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Third retest of 3980 today. I see a falling wedge in DJI and what may be a bull flag in NQ/SPX. A bullish reaction is possible. Be cautious!
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Rejected today at 4115. Really expected more of a rally, 4110 an obvious target, see the congestion zone there. If the dog won't hunt, shoot it!
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Clear falling wedge in NQ now. These typically pivot sharply upside. Bearish momentum wanes. Time for a brief reversal imo. Taking nothing.
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Taking 4 QQQ 301c with 24m to exp in at .30c
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MOved fast and closed atm
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Might get higher Thursday imo. Got EOD fade going now, that lift was brief, as always..
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or not... trace the line back from 3930 notice it is a strong s/r zone with much congestion past months. might form support here imo, taking no big pos, just scalpers
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Flipped puts then calls. Gonna be whippy PA all day IMO but the bear run is probly nearing pivot end for time being, ofc can get lower but not betting on it here. Mostly a watcher again today. Made beer money for long weekend.
NOT losing money is the single most important principle in trading. Some days you dont' get much, but any day you don't give it away is a good day!
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Flipping calls for fun and profit! LOL ride the White Pony!
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Do not short IMO. Pivoting. 3910 found support? Proof in the pudding...
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Flipped spy calls on R>G. Closed out all positions. Anything can happen on jobs tomorrow.
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Flipped puts on gapfill and calls on the bounce. Still feels bearish imo this lift is temporary.
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Flipped calls, then puts, then calls and more puts. Exhausted! Coffee break DZ time.
In spite of the enthusiastic spike today the 'feel' is still bearish. IMO this is a 4th wave and lower to follow.
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Moar put flipping. Scalps been good. QQQ has tested $302 3x today. PA looks weak, a chance for sudden sharp sell is real danger to bulls.
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Puts greened right after post above lol, closed 301p for nice scalp!
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4015 looks like resistance. Not shorting over weekend. Might try for higher Tues, or even in powerhour today.
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Really expected fourth wave to last more than a day. Look they sold the whole day's gains back in under an hour. Scroll up... "PA weak...dnager to bulls..." Banked it.
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Red > Green on Thursday; Green > Red on Friday; more red to follow imo. Scalping puts.
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Wow, nuts. Scalped calls off the -80 sale. Back in cash. Nuts!
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Do not chase this sale. Overnight futures traded lower and this selldown maybe PA manipulation to close the short contracts. Price could blossom again EOD, I've seen this before when it gaps higher.
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Or it could be just tanking, lol
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SPX futurz low o/n 3958, MMs can close those positions now for small green.
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Calls sold for $3 this morning now 0.03c. Sorry if you held them!? So bearish again... such a short rally fgs.
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Flipped a few calls around the lows but tbvh whipsaw took most of my early gains. Sorry if you are red on the day, imo could be headed lower next week after all.
Not holding a thing over holiday weekend. Getting too late to make a day trade now, scalpers all risk little reward. Best to step off, good weekend to all!
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Could not resist scalping puts eod and bought ten 0dte calls at 3:55 just to see and they did move up, lol. L8rs!
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scalped it both ways. looks to be firming up around 3900, notice overlay projects a weak rally right about now. closed it all no positions, let's see if it does lift.
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On the wires: "NAZ longest losing streak since 2016."
Probly a good bet gonna get a turn soon imo.
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Beige book 2pm Weds; Powell spanks again on Thurs 9am before open.
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CPI Tues, PPI Weds, FMI & jobless claims Thursday, sentiment gauge on Fri next week.
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Expect some kind of minor lift for a day or two, perhaps up to ~4k again. Might not get past Thursday's JPowell chat, lol.
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O/N futurz traded to 3888, appears to form support there. Would not take another short atm, looks like an impulsive DT 5-EW completed here.
OFC sentiment can always drive it lower but it's oversold and overdue a bounce imo.
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Flipped puts 3x and closed just before this spike, fgs. Didn't see that coming but I predicted it, lol.
Stay green my friends!
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So we had a nice bounce up to 4k hit R and slammed it. Made small bank on the gapfill, missed the big bullup but caught the swoon. Back in cash.
Could be setup for more volatility soon imo.
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Painted a huge bear flag and broke. Gonna get lower soon imo. No place for longs here folks.
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Shorted the retrace in PM. PA weak. IMO we setting up for a major flush. Loading SQQQ, SPXS, plus a few puts.
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Filled in the chart. Way oversold. Another rally soon imo.
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OFC it gaps down, again. MOst of the price changes have been at night. So to get the full bear load you have to hold at risk AH.
Black Swan event coming soon imo. Do not buy just b/c oversold. In crash indicators become worthless.
Trade closed: target reached
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Stepping off. OFC it can sell more and probably will. Filled in the chart! Take what it gives you.
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Short the rallies. Total failure today, expect more tomorrow and crash pattern evolving. October will be scary, as usual.
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Shorting the rally was not a valid strat this time. IN spite of yield inversion and home sales slump the damned thing took off from oversold anyway. Too much was apparently enough. Unpredictable and irrational; bad news got good again. Won't last long IMO.
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Another one-day rally and short entry. What next? Sure looks like it's headed for a Big Break, eh?
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U.S. Core PCE Price Index YoY Create Alert
Latest Release Aug 26, 2022 Actual 4.6% Forecast 4.7% Previous 4.8% The Core PCE price Index is the less volatile measure of the PCE price index which excludes the more volatile and seasonal food and energy prices. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in inflation may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in inflation may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency. Importance: Country: Currency: USD Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. Core PCE Price Index YoY
Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Sep 30, 2022 (Aug) 08:30 4.7% 4.6% Aug 26, 2022 (Jul) 08:30 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% Jul 29, 2022 (Jun) 08:30 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% Jun 30, 2022 (May) 08:30 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% May 27, 2022 (Apr) 08:30 4.9% 4.9% 5.2% Apr 29, 2022 (Mar) 08:30 5.2% 5.3% 5.3%
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Forecast Aug: 4.7%; July was 4.6%; delta of +/- 0.1% will drive a selloff or spark rally. GLTA! No position, LOL
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So an illogical rally (banked it) and EOD selloff. Such fun! Probably real close to near-term low imo.
October is often the pivot month. Don't be surprised to see it jump next week.