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DaddySawbucks
May 26, 2022 1:55 AM

Five Percent Rally Coming? Long

S&P 500 IndexTVC

Description

Looks like price can break up out of down channel. First Resistance at 4220, then stronger R at 4300. Target in the box. 200 pips = 5%.

Been oversold badly for weeks. Time for relief rally; a technical breakup. Once confidence returns the bullishness could get quite furious.

Maybe you don't feel real good about buying now, that's reasonable. You don't want to get caught short in a massive pump either.

Expected timeframe ~ two weeks IF price mimics last rally, went up for ten sessions in March. Small caps moving up, DJI leading.

Play it in TQQQ, UDOW, SPXL, TNA; SPY / QQQ / DIA / IWM calls, if you dare. Not advice; just another WAG: GLTA!

Comment

Here it goes!

Comment

Nice one! Holding five bull spreads overnight. Not chasing; often after a breakout we see a pullback to the .38 - .62 fibo. This so strong moving from oversold probly won't reset much.

Comment

Gonna get higher imo. Breakout to upside. After the covid crash breakout there was a .62 fib pullback next day provided entry for the massive multiday rally... when the shorts unwind this will pump like Hell. Do not be short here imo.

Trade active

Closed longs on quite a gap, try a small short for ?gapfill? Might get a partial gapfill imo.

Comment

Back in cash. Do not chase this retail rally imo. Two gaps to fill, could be a sudden surprise next week, idk.

Apparently most of the money flow is retail FOMO atm. Smart money is sitting on hands laughing.

Comment

At a critical juncture the breakdown point from 5 May, a former support turned resistance. Might consider closing longs could get rejection or a pullback before higher from this price.
Comments
maxaus
4H RSI and MFI both severely overbought. Should retrace to 4080 at a minimum before continuing upwards. Closed longs, opened shorts moderate SL.
DaddySawbucks
@maxaus, made a buck off the eod panic buy which got more frantic than expected, shorts desperate to cover, won't be so green tues imo
maxaus
@DaddySawbucks, 6% in two days is a bit of a stretch i reckon. should see some sort of a pull back before hitting another resistance at 42xx ish.
AmroMarketWatch
Plus positive/bullish divergence on a weekly RSI, a rare signal that you see once in a blue moon... Rally might even be 10-12% on NSDQ, let's wait n see. But yes, I understand the fear in the market...
DaddySawbucks
@AmroMarketWatch, fear >>> greed + hope
maxaus
Yep, saw that yesterday when SPX wasn't going below 3919 and shot up 12 points in 1 min. Nice price action that was which broke the descending channel later in the day. Totally support your view.
makkam01
thank you, well explained. gave me a better perspective
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