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Ok guys, damn, haven't seen so much enthusiasm for reaching the ATH before. All you day traders are blowing me up lol.
So what's it gonna be... ATH or Bull Trap crash?
Well I dunno, so far my resistance around 3264 is holding up on my Acid Trip and Mega Trend model posts from yesterday. Probably mostly just people waiting on earnings and holding steady so the real validation test will be tomorrow.
I think ATH odds are long, most ideas here are drawing peak and low based megaphone patterns and then drawing a line up to the bottom of the megaphone.
My Tholian Web model here was an early take where I also went that route but I really don't think it captures the true nature of the market here, which is why I'm more heavily favoring my newer Mega Trend model, where I instead drew a TREND BASED megaphone pattern. In that model we're already right at the top of the megaphone now.
So based on a peak and low megaphone model were looking at potential ATH at 3450-3500 (top yellow line) but getting there would require a level of irrational exuberance never before seen. So plausible but unlikely.
We are approaching the next green S/R line here so I'd expect the market to ride up that or fall under and begin the crash.
Aside from my models, the most important day to day tracking I'm doing is over on the DIX: https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix
Here we're seeing sustained divergence between the DIX and the GEX with GEX on top and DIX downtrend, which is very bearish .
What I'm expecting is GEX to spike up through Price to higher highs and DIX to diverge further to lower lows. Once that happens, they'll be no stopping the downturn.
Unfortunately their data is delayed by a few hours from close so we'll know more soon but if you're not even looking at the DIX day to day then you're trading with one hand behind your back.
So what's it gonna be... ATH or Bull Trap crash?
Well I dunno, so far my resistance around 3264 is holding up on my Acid Trip and Mega Trend model posts from yesterday. Probably mostly just people waiting on earnings and holding steady so the real validation test will be tomorrow.
I think ATH odds are long, most ideas here are drawing peak and low based megaphone patterns and then drawing a line up to the bottom of the megaphone.
My Tholian Web model here was an early take where I also went that route but I really don't think it captures the true nature of the market here, which is why I'm more heavily favoring my newer Mega Trend model, where I instead drew a TREND BASED megaphone pattern. In that model we're already right at the top of the megaphone now.
So based on a peak and low megaphone model were looking at potential ATH at 3450-3500 (top yellow line) but getting there would require a level of irrational exuberance never before seen. So plausible but unlikely.
We are approaching the next green S/R line here so I'd expect the market to ride up that or fall under and begin the crash.
Aside from my models, the most important day to day tracking I'm doing is over on the DIX: https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix
Here we're seeing sustained divergence between the DIX and the GEX with GEX on top and DIX downtrend, which is very bearish .
What I'm expecting is GEX to spike up through Price to higher highs and DIX to diverge further to lower lows. Once that happens, they'll be no stopping the downturn.
Unfortunately their data is delayed by a few hours from close so we'll know more soon but if you're not even looking at the DIX day to day then you're trading with one hand behind your back.
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Wow, I didn't even know about the DIX! Awesome link, thank you. I think my previous comment about heading toward 3400 would be in line with this divergence as well. It would give the DIX a chance to head even lower, for a larger divergence. And it would be a false breakout of the megaphone trend lines as well.
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@Petrichor_, It's true but those spikes happen quick and the price drops shortly thereafter so sometime this week still has decent odds. Looks like we got entanglement today!
Could be coiling for something big B).
Could be coiling for something big B).
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@ProfitHarvest corporate insiders are selling their stocks and buying apple microsoft and tesla LOL
Nice analysis as usual but ATH is now around the corner
Have a safe trading
Nice analysis as usual but ATH is now around the corner
Have a safe trading
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@antrap77, corporate insiders are selling off stocks. Period.
https://www.ccn.com/corporate-insiders-quietly-ring-the-register-as-sell-orders-surge/
https://www.ccn.com/corporate-insiders-quietly-ring-the-register-as-sell-orders-surge/
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@ProfitHarvest, corporate insiders are selling off stocks. Period. Where do they put that money? We do not know...maybe the re-invest it in something else more profitable...TESLA, APPLE and co.
That was just a joke btw
But apparently the market is still up today
That was just a joke btw
But apparently the market is still up today
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@ProfitHarvest Thank you for the DIX info; I wasn't aware of this either! Both links are key tidbits right now where we are. I'll admit we've come up higher and for longer than I would've ever thought, but what's rational anymore? Your Treasure Map is still relevant and not dated, that's the main thing. There's waaay too much data backing our mindset, even if the prophesy has been early.
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@farmerisland, Yea the data underestimated the manipulation for sure but yea the data pool that built the Treasure Map is still within reasonably expected range. Starting to think it may not drop as low as predicted though and may instead coil up for a more massive drop before EOY but we'll see.
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I love following your analysis, and I'm with you in thinking it's over-extended and imminent. However, I do think this market LOVES to trick AS MANY people as possible. Because of this, I think it could easily tap 3400 before crashing, almost right away after touching the number. It would stop out shorts, and trap the last fomo bull crowd. It would be a false breakout back into the bull run zone from 2018 until Feb. 2020. Plus, it would be a major media headline for weeks, even after the market was crashing. They'd call the moves down "a healthy correction" for as long as possible, and really drill it into the retail investor that we reached all-time highs, and will climb even higher, as we're heading down towards 2800 -> 2500 -> 2300 and maybe lower. By the time everyone realize they were trapped, we'd be challenging the March lows.
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https://www.ccn.com/corporate-insiders-q...