Welcome to this Update-Analysis about the S&P 500 Index and the 12-hour timeframe perspectives. Since my last idea about the Index, the whole H-S-Formation that I mentioned has been finally completed and the Index heavily increased with bearish volatilities. The breakdown emerged after the FEDs announcement to possibly decrease their balance sheet which currently has a total balance of 8.7 Billion US-Dollar, also the FED is looking to increase interest rates, there was no action taken yet however the sheer announcement of it already caused turmoil in the market. Now the index already moved into the initial target-zone that I mentioned, if you did not see the analysis already I highly recommend it to watch as this one is building a coherent follow up on the previous analysis, therefore I am looking at all the important levels, upcoming determinations and structural formations we need to consider here.
Structural Developments: As when looking at my chart we can watch there how the Index is now moving and testing the remaining supports at the 4380 levels which are also the first head shoulder targets nevertheless according to the high bearish momentum with which the Index showed up here there is an increased likelihood given that a bearish continuation is indicated. Therefore, currently, it is likely that the Index shows up with an initial bounce which moves on to test the 85-EMA in red and the 45-EMA in green which are currently still resistance. How the Index moves into these EMAs will determine upon the outcomes of either a bearish continuation or a reversal. Therefore when the Index shows up with an increased bearish pullback this will likely lead to a bearish continuation and wave C extension within the bearish continuation zone marked in my chart in red.
Upcoming Determinations: When this does not happen and the Index somewhat manages to stabilize in the structure within the potential reversal zone there is also a reversal possible however due to the fact that the Index already heavily increased bearish volatility there is a higher possibility given that the bearish continuation will emerge. In this case, targets of 4150 to 4170 will be indicated. Taking these factors into consideration simultaneously it will be also important what the FEDs decision will be next week because when the FED comes up with a decision on increasing the interest rates this will be a high likelihood indication for further declines to follow up in the market. A similar indication will be given when the FED decides upon decreasing their balance sheet, such a development will lead to similar bearish causing, it will be a crucial dynamic ahead.
In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best! "There are many roads to prosperity, but one must be taken."
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
Comment
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ANALYSIS UPDATE: The S&P 500 completed the major bearish volatility continuation with a huge determination.
The S&P 500 after continuing with the bearish acceleration reached further bearish levels within the bearish acceleration zone.
I don't think there is a head and shoulder there yet ( left shoulder Yes, head Yes, right shoulder Not Yet) , both weekly chart AND daily chart will be best the confirmation to view head and shoulder formation. if the current pattern go up ( same height of left shoulder or lower) then down straight again , THEN , we can say there is a head and shoulder formation.
robertlu94134
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to add top of that, the neckline has to be broken down 3% margin to be fully confirmed!!. otherwise, it could be consolidation. stop loss will come in help because we never know, however, people will run before it get completed as long as they see the volume or height of left shoulder is lower than right shoulder.
YMGroup
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You made me Reconsider my take on the pair!
FiboTrader1
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believe you meant 8.5 trillion, not billion. Next support is 4310 and if that can be broken, then 4140 before minor 5 of wave 1 down is completed and we see an attempt to 4300 before the royal flushing down which I anticipate to be in late February. All in all, we completed wave 5 of 5 from the bottom of 2009, so expect the S&P to drop to 2400 or lower by the end of 2023/early 2024. We're going into a recession and it's going to be very ugly.
VincePrince
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