DavidRah

S&P 500 Dailt Chart - GANN'S FAN

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
We are in the second part of the Fiscal year and we were just started the earning season Q2FY2018. The market is in positive momentum and a lot of companies are declaring Buy Back plans.
The Buy Backs will increase the value of their shares and will push the indices to higher highs.
The economy is the USA is doing great and being developed more and more. The US economy is in Full Job Capacity and the numbers of the unemployments are less then ever. With that data we see that people are buying
and this is why there is inflation that starts to rise. The people are working, they are buying and spending and the inflation is rising nicely and that is what cause the economy to grow.
Despite these great points, we are located in a Long process that re-postioned USA in different place then the past in the new economic order.
POTUS Trump is trying to change the traditional balance by adopting "wild"/ tough/ insulting rhetoric which meant to show the world the the USA is the Emperor and no more philanthropy to the world.
POTUS Trump took a decision that the USA will stop give money freely to the entire world. Now he wants the countries to pay like the USA. This is why we see the international panic from time to time... this is why there is kind of "trade war".
The european politicians are a bit in panic from this change and so the Great Republic of China.
How do POTUS and the USA this re-postioned? how do they plan to win ? how do they going to make the world pay ? very simple.
The dollar index is the key. We saw how they started an "Exchange War". in addition the US FED took a decision stop injecting liquidity to the markets and they stopped the QE and now they reduce their Balance Sheet every month.
This reducing in the balance sheet cause a liquidity problem which cause the "institutional" players to sell assets in the market and this is why they market is Choppy now and more volatile.
Despite these issues, the markets absorb the reducing of the Fed's balance sheet , the "trading war" issues and adapting the new conditions, including the US10Y yield.
Technically, every time the market touches the 200MA it is jumping and there are buyers.
The Nasdaq is continuing breaking new highs and unlike 2000 and 2007, this is the one who make new highs.The Tech. Locomotive is the one who creates jobs and this technology is the REAL revolution of this Millennium.This is why i think we are going to see new highs and the uptrend continues.
As for the short-term. We can see that the past 2-3 weeks were less volatile but i think we shell continue to see choppy days but they will be days of buying opportunities. A lot of the money is outside of the market and will join when the S&P will finish its last correction soon before new ATH .
In the next couple of weeks or in this summer, i think the market will be moving between the 2749 and -2840.
This week the market will try to break the 2809 and 2825 and then maybe retrace.
Should be very careful with the trades this summer, this is kind of choppy uptrending environment.
Despite the Chart the based on Gann's Fan and its square of 9, and despite some EW count that shown continuation of the uptrend, we are still in a risky zone that can turn to RED zone.
Therefore, watch the 2749 and 2736 levels as first alert, and as for myself, a break of the 200MA will send me to the Fence.

This is my point of view. I may have interest and position in the market, so i don't recommend anyone to take any action in the stock market.

Good Luck.


GREEN IS GREEN!!!


Comments

Thanks for the detailed synopsis- very insightful. I'm not convinced we're going to see a breakout upside in September I'd be more optimistic about February, but who knows. Good luck!
Reply
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