Greetings Traders & Investors:
Its been a little while since my last post, so I thought I would drop my 2 cents in this weekend. The Market has been in choppy waters for the last month or so and we are slowly climbing up and will reach the peak by end of August.
The last Stimulus bill is due to come out in August sometime as well, which will give us enough gas to break the 3400 mark. I suspect to see lots of resistance at this level, but we will eventually break through to the other side of it and set new historic highs.
Its at this moment you will see lots of firms begin to sell equities and rush into safer assets like Gold - in preparation for Nov elections. Many traders think that Trump will try to make the market run in Oct, before the elections, but I think we will see the markets start to retreat in this time-frame. There should be lots of volatility during these 2 months before elections, no matter who ends up winning, the market will start its descent to its true value at this time. The climb down will last most of 2021, with spikes here and there. Here are my reasons for the 3500 target and its descent:
The Sept Peak:
- Last Stimulus Bill Passed
- Every move 20-25% below the 40-week moving average, on the advance up the market always moved anywhere from 15-20% above the 40-week moving average before the run is over. Target 3500!
The Descent:
- With new highs reached, Short-Sellers will come in with great numbers, as well as Investors leaving Equities - moving to safer assets
- Gold is running strong and is looking to reach $2,500 by years end.
- Unemployment is still racking up +1MM/weekly claims
- 1st Forbearance ends in Sept, with last the 6months ending in April 2021. Foreclosures are on the way.
- 2nd COVID Wave is officially running, with an estimated peak in Sept
- After the elections, the real economy will take hold and the realization of high levels of Unemployment with bring the S&P back down to reality.
Thanks for reading my Post, and all comments and constructive thoughts are welcome.
Bests,
JP - OUT
Its been a little while since my last post, so I thought I would drop my 2 cents in this weekend. The Market has been in choppy waters for the last month or so and we are slowly climbing up and will reach the peak by end of August.
The last Stimulus bill is due to come out in August sometime as well, which will give us enough gas to break the 3400 mark. I suspect to see lots of resistance at this level, but we will eventually break through to the other side of it and set new historic highs.
Its at this moment you will see lots of firms begin to sell equities and rush into safer assets like Gold - in preparation for Nov elections. Many traders think that Trump will try to make the market run in Oct, before the elections, but I think we will see the markets start to retreat in this time-frame. There should be lots of volatility during these 2 months before elections, no matter who ends up winning, the market will start its descent to its true value at this time. The climb down will last most of 2021, with spikes here and there. Here are my reasons for the 3500 target and its descent:
The Sept Peak:
- Last Stimulus Bill Passed
- Every move 20-25% below the 40-week moving average, on the advance up the market always moved anywhere from 15-20% above the 40-week moving average before the run is over. Target 3500!
The Descent:
- With new highs reached, Short-Sellers will come in with great numbers, as well as Investors leaving Equities - moving to safer assets
- Gold is running strong and is looking to reach $2,500 by years end.
- Unemployment is still racking up +1MM/weekly claims
- 1st Forbearance ends in Sept, with last the 6months ending in April 2021. Foreclosures are on the way.
- 2nd COVID Wave is officially running, with an estimated peak in Sept
- After the elections, the real economy will take hold and the realization of high levels of Unemployment with bring the S&P back down to reality.
Thanks for reading my Post, and all comments and constructive thoughts are welcome.
Bests,
JP - OUT