Bull and Bear cases. Can go either way and all positions entail extreme risk at this juncture imo. IF last week's selloff TL rejection was a First Wave, THEN we going a lot lower real soon (projection in 5-EW).
IF the Cup & Handle (so clear! notice line drawings) predominates, THEN look for a breakout above TL at 4k and retest with impulsive move higher.
Notice the 5-EW in RSI, Friday 1/20 rally looks like a perfect Elliott wave and may be finished on short squeeze. No positions. Wait for direction!
The squeeze carried index slightly above the .62 Fib retracement from edge of cup. Getting higher would be miraculous imo.
NB: Descending TL now ~4k, a lower high may arrive 1/23 (4015 topped 1/18), if it rejects will be a clear signal; RSI has rejected at 70% 4x.
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Significantly, no bear market has yet concluded until VIX >40 in capitulation. We got to 34 several times last year.
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Well where are we now? SPX 800 pips off ATH; NQ off >4K from near 17k. And one year into the bear.
1/3 of the PA comes in first 2/3 of bear. Another 1/3 of time likely remains, and 2/3 of the PA comes in final 1/3 of time course. The sell at the end is always the steepest and deepest.
IF 800 pips is 1/3, we got another 1600 pip drop coming over next 4-6 months. Would dump all the way to 2400, a 50% dump, to conclude the Great Bear. We will know real soon imo.
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See if this holds above TL
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Amazing move. Risible bubbling enthusiasm, retail chasing stonks like giggling schoolgirls, fearlessly loading up big tech, again. I am reminded of the price behavior just prior to the big break in Feb 2018- a parabolic lunge preceding total shocking collapse.
I reckon a wee pullback now will spark a furious race to the next last top by EOM just before the seasonal meltdown in Feb/Mar.
Trade active
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Well well another gdmnd fakeout. EOD MSFT ER propped SPY, QQQ up 2 bucks so ofc I took a handful of calls thinking it's gonna breakout!
Then an hour later it all falls down AH and gone off $4 in PM session. Essentially we had a gap up in AH which has more than filled, lol. Savor the irony.
This is why I rarely pick up ANYTHING in the EOD AH 15m session. Most of these trades have been disappointments.
Looks like we about to get bearish again, might get real bearish. Roll the calls into poots!
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Look at the vix, in a descending wedge. We gonna get a big pop within days or weeks at most. Get ready.
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Umm by 'pop' I meant the VIX will pop ofc, when SPY drops. Get ready for a big drop.
Pennants and triangles are typically continuation patterns. We got breakdown of this monster pennant AH when a bull move was expected by many. Get ready for a huge disappointment.
I have begged my friends and family to GTFO this market but they all stubbornly insist it will get higher and come back again; "Hey if we sell now we take a loss, let's just wait for the bulls to come back. Be patient!" I agree! It WILL get higher... after it gets a LOT LOWER and many years have passed. You gonna need a LOT OF PATIENCE after the Great Crash of '23! GTFO NOW!
Also looking st nvidias Strength within this market i have a bullish feeling as how the market can get pushed down but Nvidia will always maintain its Move. Its showing higher lows and the candles are getting relatively Strong even at resistances
JoeChampion
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Great idea!
maxaus
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Look at july/August 2011 and 2015. Both pre-election years. Expect the same in 2023
I wish I had same bullish view right now. But I don’t. I’ve loaded heavy shorts. Going against major consensus….
DaddySawbucks
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@maxaus, gl im light short no longs i do not have any confidence in this rally but it can still kill shorts
maxaus
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@DaddySawbucks, the only bullish event on the horizon that i might think of is if Fed will do 0.25 instead of 0.5, but that in itself will bite Fed in a butt as it could spark major melt up to 4300 or good news will be treated as bad as if Fed not doing enough and stopping short to fight the inflation. it will all depend on news atmosphere early next week... I'm personally leaning towards 0.5 hike, but you never know.
maxaus
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What concerns me is that DJI is at the beginning of wave c
DaddySawbucks
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@maxaus, yeah wondering was that expanded flat B>A, a classic fakeout
nzahir
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Is Feb and March actually historically weak though?