Yesterday's rally in the SP:SPX sure looked like the Bulls were back in control, only to wake up this morning facing a over 30p gap down thanks to the Futures market. Hallmark of a Bear market? Sure doesn't feel and look Bullish to me. Shake and Bake? Sure a cake most Bulls and Bears choked on. Whipsaw City? Sure can't find a better place than this. So what's next? Well, lets first look at yesterday's rally. Normally C waves are equal to the prior A-wave or even as long as 1.618x A. But here we only have a0.618x relationship. Rare, but possible. Shortened C-waves are impossible to foresee before hand, and 30p gap downs don't protect any longs from not being crushed. The only thing that helps is reducing position size, selling into strength, or simply not trading at all. Corrections -big or small- can be very tuff to navigate. So, the most likely path (of least resistance is now down). The current decline off yesterday's high is starting to look like an impulse (orange 1,2,3,4,5) and a shallow corrective bounce once completed at around 2820-2800 before the next leg lower is now most likely. Ultimately SPX2730s seems to be on the table from where I anticipate a more sustained bounce than what we've seen over the last few days. Trade safe!
Been following your ideas and we are aligned. 2880 is likely to be the support turned resistance and a pullback here before further short entries. Agreed?
intelligent_investing
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@WeiShingLee, Thanks! Yes 2870-2900 is now resistance zone, so 2880 fits nicely. I am not a RIA so won’t make any trade recommendations but levels like that can and should be used for one’s trading decisions (entries, stops, etc)
FT_Trades
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@intelligent_investing, I see Nice & significant liquidity flowing in from important support (2824/2848) do you still need for 200SMA test area (2730-2795) ?
intelligent_investing
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@Farahk, Hi Farahk! "I" don't need a 200d SMA retest, ;-) it all depends on what the market wants to do. Remember that corrections can become very complex with many -very hard to anticipate- twists and turns. But yes a move higher to 2880s from current levels wouldn't surprise me, especially since the cpce closed at 0.98 today... too bearish!