Here's a predictive trend-based model that suggests the current turbulence might not foretell doom. The conspicuous parabolic movement at the start of this year was out of trend, and is simply being corrected back into trend, according to this hypothetical model. Curiously, notice that it's almost like sheering forces (yellow lines) shot across the trend at about a 45-degree angle to the trend defining the (a) slope, (b) peaks and (c) valleys of the turbulence to date.
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A zoom-in on the post-peak turbulence, using the Dow...
Exactly! I expect S&P500 to grow to 3.000. I Follow a principle called ‘cycle trading’ which is based on the conclusion which is made out of analyses made on charts as oil and S&P500. This conclusion is that these charts Follow a cycle. Every 3 months for example S&P has a huge short and after it has a bigger uptrend than it was! So till april I expect a horizontal Line. This cycle occures also in 1hour chart, 1day, 1week, always!
Check my analyses If you want to know more.
iGoddard
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At first I was pretty pessimistic after the February turbulence. Major indices looked like the cracking up peak of a bubble. I still don't rule that out. But if you look at high-perfomers like AMZN, NOC and MTCH you get a different perspective on the same turbulence, a perspective that implies thing could just keep going up. But maybe those high-performers are just having longer-lasting bubbles and will soon crackup and down themselves.
But if this Friday's upward movement really marks a trough, then the peaks and troughs of the post-peak 'shark teeth' suggest rising lower support and thus upward momentum going forward.
Interesting analytical model you propose. Do you have ideas posted showing it?
Rich_Exclusive_Trading
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@iGoddard, Yes I have a lot of models showing this, but today TradingView has made all my Posts invisible because I violated the rules, because I promoted my paid signal service. I have to re- publisch them. If you like, please follow me so you get notified when I publish them.
iGoddard
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@Rich_Exclusive_Trading, I tried to reply to your post, but couldn't as I don't have enough rep points yet. But here's what I wrote (assuming I can even post here under my idea):
Ah, yea, I can see somewhat of a 3-month pattern. It is interesting to look at Chinese stock patterns, they all seem to follow a very regular wave pattern, more or less. That pattern is, for example, very pronounced in WB. Maybe it's related to what you're pointing out.
Just on casual observation I've noticed that even during a steady bull run, Mondays seem to be down days and Friday tend to be up. Never investigated that, just an impression I've gotten and I'm not a long-time market watcher. But to your point, maybe Monday could go either way and marks a change of course. My hypothesis for that is people who make changes to their portfolio make their plans over a weekend, then execute them on Monday. The fact that the DJI on Friday was down for the third day may increase the odds that a lot of people this weekend decided to sell on Monday, even though in fact Friday saw an all-day rally during trading hours, but during after-hour trading before it fell 70 points further than it rebounded. But people may not see that rebound. If you look at charts by day, not hour, you can't see the rebound that was really palpable.
Check my analyses If you want to know more.