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DaddySawbucks
Feb 10, 2023 2:08 AM

Broken TL Headed Down from Lower Top Short

S&P 500 IndexTVC

Description

No New Bull market, no new ATH yet. Just another Bull **** Trap. Headed for oversold IMO, see RSI.

Likely find support at 50MA on the 4K, where former resistance turned support before. See the arrows.

I begged friends and family to shuck this dog but "No, it's going to ATH they said, you're wrong Sawbucks.
What, and miss out on the next bull run?!"

See you at the double bottom; GLTA.

Comment

TL retest completed; hanging man candle 2/14 on CPI > headed lower.

Trade active

No definite PA moves. Downtrending channel...
looks, feels like consolidation triangle formation, feels like a 4th wave chop-drop-pop-chop
directionless; a bull flag?
NO positions. See which way it breaks.

Comment

Some clear topping signals coming out now. We got a triple top formed with sequence of lower highs... 418-416-414; inverted H&S on VIX, crushed near to 18.24, a historic critical value in bear markets.

NB: In real bear markets, VIX will not get under 18. Crush to this range precedes a spike into next bearish DT.

Watch this, Peter is usually spot on, well worth a look:
youtube.com/watch?v=_MRa5BWPRSQ

Trade active

Shorted all major indices on the retracement rally and caught the eod selloff. Get ready for a gap down and lower Friday. Do not try to time a bounce; any lifts are only short entries. NOT getting any higher IMO.
Get ready for da Big Dump. GLTA

Trade active

Closed shorts on this dump 2/21. Might dump more or rally again from 4k price zone. Going oversold, can sell more, be carefull!

Opened a few light longs.

Comment

Filled in this chart but took a while to get here. Made a triple top. Now it's really headed lower but backing up the putwagon here might be a mistake.

Expect a .382 retrace as we saw in August when it came off the 4300 lower top. Then the hammer.

Trade closed: target reached

Closed out bear shares and poots Friday. Might get follow-thru selling MOnday, might gap up instead.

Got a clear 5-EW pattern down from 4150 > 3950. Enjoy your 200 pips if you followed this idea!

What next? Doubtful to get a V-recovery with uncertain econonews. LIkely to get consolidative chop for weeks, up>down>up>down>up.

Breakout to upside likely imo, unless Fed tanks it 22 March.
Comments
WillSebastian
A good level for Light Longs :) Good stuff mate
DaddySawbucks
@WillSebastian, Might get a bounce Mon but terrific Resist at 408. Expected 410 on the table Fri PM, no way. Will see! tysm
wolffarchitecture
Makers have been holding up his sinking ship for weeks, (it should have dropped long ago) there not going to let market go down until after February option expiry, tomorrow.... then the dam breaks
illuminating_trade
wealthprophet
Well done telling family. This ships going down. Dumb money blight the dip and FOMO about to get RECKED.
BlackisKing
DaddySawbucks
@BlackisKing, a lovely fairytale
BlackisKing
@DaddySawbucks, its been working so far, no?
robbtronic
Dollar and 10yr both revered pretty hard. If that pa in the $ is a bull flag things will get interesting.
JoeChampion
Good level to consider mate!
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