Combined with fundamentals (oil, unemployment) a recession is unstoppable.
The S&P is bound to drop with at least 10% in the coming days. A trigger moment could be the unemployment figures released tomorrow (Thursday 23/04/2020)
I agree. Seems however that the market lately responds positively to disastrous unemployment numbers (maybe they think more helicopter money to juice the markets is coming the worse the employment stats?). So maybe for tomorrows drop we see good unemployment figures (relative to market expectations at least).
It could be too that the market is happy with 10-15% unemployment as that likely means many companies have a chance to shed some of their inefficient segments/workers. However as we get into 20-30% unemployment, perhaps the market participants will realize that consumer spending will be effected more than future company efficiency gains can make up for and thus the dreamed of V-shaped recovery is actually nothing more than that...a dream.
It could be too that the market is happy with 10-15% unemployment as that likely means many companies have a chance to shed some of their inefficient segments/workers. However as we get into 20-30% unemployment, perhaps the market participants will realize that consumer spending will be effected more than future company efficiency gains can make up for and thus the dreamed of V-shaped recovery is actually nothing more than that...a dream.