Down the S&P Rabbit Hole of Spin
Over and over I see top analysts making opposing bear/bullish cases for the S&P. So what gives?
Individual investor sentiment is extremely low. Schiff says the housing market is going to collapse and it's already started. The yield curve inverted, it's 7 for 7 in predicting a recession.
The big big boys I follow, are all bullish, go figure. I can't figure their logic out.
One told me well bad news is good news, as the Fed will cut rates and Trump is manipulating the market. Ok, not enough of an answer, Fed cuts on average provide an under 2% increase on the S&P.
Then there's the Trade War bullshit. It's already been going on, supposedly, and would already have cause a lot of damage.Then there's his insane Tweets that rock the market.
Then there's the mid cycle classical 18 year real estate investment cycle, we're right on track for falling housing prices which have already started. Usually accompanied by a mid size recession.
So why is ANYONE BULLISH??
Read this morning that the market is being propped up by unprecedented stock buy backs...ok...maybe...and high individual investor demand with managed funds...ok..sounds logical, sort of...Financial Advisors in my experience ride your retirement account ALL the way down a bear market, so they won't ever tell you to get out...need those commissions! Ugh.
Then there's the massive bearish engulfing candle from last December, which 80% of the time signals a looming bear market. Happened in 2008, 2000 and 8 out of 10 previous bear markets. I've done the back testing.
Yet...the big boys I follow like JC Paret's alleged chart genius (really not so sure anymore) and Adam Kobeissi are bullish. WTF? You Ask? Good for you, me too!
Beats me at this point.
At least Jim Kramer said the same this week on his show so I know I'm in good company.
Thoughts?
Over and over I see top analysts making opposing bear/bullish cases for the S&P. So what gives?
Individual investor sentiment is extremely low. Schiff says the housing market is going to collapse and it's already started. The yield curve inverted, it's 7 for 7 in predicting a recession.
The big big boys I follow, are all bullish, go figure. I can't figure their logic out.
One told me well bad news is good news, as the Fed will cut rates and Trump is manipulating the market. Ok, not enough of an answer, Fed cuts on average provide an under 2% increase on the S&P.
Then there's the Trade War bullshit. It's already been going on, supposedly, and would already have cause a lot of damage.Then there's his insane Tweets that rock the market.
Then there's the mid cycle classical 18 year real estate investment cycle, we're right on track for falling housing prices which have already started. Usually accompanied by a mid size recession.
So why is ANYONE BULLISH??
Read this morning that the market is being propped up by unprecedented stock buy backs...ok...maybe...and high individual investor demand with managed funds...ok..sounds logical, sort of...Financial Advisors in my experience ride your retirement account ALL the way down a bear market, so they won't ever tell you to get out...need those commissions! Ugh.
Then there's the massive bearish engulfing candle from last December, which 80% of the time signals a looming bear market. Happened in 2008, 2000 and 8 out of 10 previous bear markets. I've done the back testing.
Yet...the big boys I follow like JC Paret's alleged chart genius (really not so sure anymore) and Adam Kobeissi are bullish. WTF? You Ask? Good for you, me too!
Beats me at this point.
At least Jim Kramer said the same this week on his show so I know I'm in good company.
Thoughts?
Comment:
When a closed red candle breaks well below a green box, historically, 90% of the time we go into a bear market. This happened in 2000, 2008 and end of 2019.