Technician
Long

It is Signalling a Rebound

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
3628 35 54
The SPX             has retested the major long term low and support level at 1821, before rallying.
A bullish hammer at that support suggest we could see more upside in the short term(for the coming few weeks). Fading the rally from here is a dangerous idea.

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Technician
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Related Ideas

Genghis
10 months ago
SP500 H&S long set up
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Genghis
10 months ago
Inverse Head and Shoulders visible on the shorter time frames (check 4hr). Tech I hope you are right and we can push back above 2000. Give us fresh opportunity to load up short :)
Really appreciate your work fella.
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Technician TOP Genghis
10 months ago
Thanks mate appreciate it.
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Will Wong
10 months ago
What do you mean by fading the rally from here is a dangerous idea? Thanks!
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GMOTruths Will Wong
10 months ago
I'm pretty sure he means that if you are long-term bearish, don't sell short now when price is rising, as in this rally.

That's not what I want to hear now; I am net short!
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Will Wong GMOTruths
10 months ago
Thanks! The long term EW chart shows the wave 4 A-B-C correction completed and wave 5 in progress before the generational crash! My only question is how high wave 5 of 5 will take the SPX. I really doubt it will go much higher than the All time high.
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ChartArt Will Wong
10 months ago
That's exactly why we could go higher than the all-time high. The maximum pain level of bears who shorted below 1900 is going to be exactly there. If this ever happens ...
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smitheric1970 PRO GMOTruths
10 months ago
I am short as well, I believe we see failure by 1950
snapshot
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GMOTruths smitheric1970
10 months ago
I'm shorting individual stocks, though. $W, $JNK, $HYG, $CAT. Maybe $AMZN will make a comeback! heh.


What are your thoughts on $RACE? I just covered a bunch of it. That was good.
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Will Wong smitheric1970
10 months ago
Isn't there a gap at 1980?
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Technician TOP GMOTruths
10 months ago
True, This is what i mean. Thanks for explaining. I am not sure what is your time horizon for your shorts. But as you know i remain long term bearish.
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Technician TOP Technician
10 months ago
This comment is intended for GMOTruths.
+1 Reply
GMOTruths
10 months ago
How did you determine the 2020.86 level?
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Nickmail
10 months ago
absolutley agree with you... i am even watching 2070 as a target
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ChartArt Nickmail
10 months ago
If we actually go higher then 2070 is an area I have also calculated.
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jangseohee
10 months ago
a week ago
snapshot

as of friday close

snapshot
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ChartArt
10 months ago
So you think my original plan which I posted 20 days ago is happening?

Game plan for the next Fed rate hike meeting in March 2016



After so many bears showed up my update 10 days ago was already less bullish:

Relief rally starting after Apple earnings, January 26, 2016



I actually just started to give up hope on Thursday Jan 28, because the market has been acting way too bearish the entire last two weeks. The oil price is on the edge of falling lower again, which will drivestock markets down again.
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moneymaking
10 months ago
Hey mate, same idea outlook for me. Looking for nice rebound from this, 2020 is a reasonable target. All the BEST :)

S&P 500: VALID ASCENDING TRIANGLE- CLOSE TO THE BREAKOUT POINT!!
+1 Reply
GMOTruths moneymaking
10 months ago
I am waiting to see the futures market, especially oil, on Sunday.
+1 Reply
moneymaking GMOTruths
10 months ago
I will be strongly bullish. All the BEST :)
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Hamit PRO
10 months ago
Hi Technician,
I understand that your are short Oil. Do you think that a drop in oil prices is going have any negative implications for SPX?
+1 Reply
Technician TOP Hamit
10 months ago
Hey. Oil issue has very minimal connection to stocks. It is all about a surplus of supply.
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GMOTruths Technician
10 months ago
I was reading in Bloomberg that

Crude Oil 32.05 -4.34%
Brent Oil 34.76 -4.65%

I'm reading in bloomberg that lower oil hurts levered energy asset holders.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/what-s-not-to-like-about-cheap-oil-well-

“This crash is a huge transfer of wealth away from the levered global energy asset holder to the unlevered average consumer.”

(good)

But about stocks… KMI, dropped over 7% today as oil was down. JNK and HYG both dropped, too.
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Technician TOP GMOTruths
10 months ago
Sure, falling oil prices will affect energy-related investors. But it is not only about that, this is only a small part of the story.
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Hamit PRO Technician
10 months ago
Thank you Technician! Oil has been falling as you predicted and the impact on SPY has been minimal so far.
My judgement was based on what I hear on the news (like, oil down, therefore market down articles).
It looks like those guys have no idea what they are talking about :)
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GMOTruths Hamit
10 months ago
Well I admit I am pretty new.

The fact that the S&P went down some, instead of taking a the suggested strongly bullish move does not mean that the reasons given in the Bloomberg article was correct. But it might be.

I see similar lingo in NYT and in Economist: "Oil too cheap is bad for the economy." Yeah, bad for somebody's economy. Sometimes news is not 100% truthful, and may be motivated by other factors not explicitly stated. (OK, maybe more than sometimes :-D).

I'm still net short. I'm did well on JNK, HYG, KMI, and USO today. Lucky, I guess!
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moorekapital PRO
10 months ago
Excellent , and clean price action. That's how I like it.
SPX500: HIGHER LOW MAJOR TREND REVERSAL
+1 Reply
Hamit PRO moorekapital
10 months ago
Hi Moorekapital, what is the meaning of BOL & HL MTR? I am a technical analysis newbie :)
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moorekapital PRO Hamit
10 months ago
Kindly read my notes,as part of the publication.
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pekolsol PRO
10 months ago
SPX Showing bearish H&S pattern
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ripl0024
10 months ago
I think you're right that we're headed back to the 2000 level on the $SPX, but putting on this trade feels a bit like picking up pennies in front of a steam roller. I personally prefer to sit this little counter trend rally out and put on a short position at the 2000-2020 level.
+1 Reply
FxSaint
10 months ago
Hello, I just wanted to tell that when it come for giving quality material for free, no one can beat you Mr. Technician. Great website & everything there free is best thing I have seen in forex industry after Tradingview.com.
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GMOTruths
10 months ago
Might very easily be back to 1867 by tomorrow (Wednesday) or Thursday.

A low volume Friday might have it bounce back upwards. Gonna keep the JNK in the trunk along w HYG, plus some other stuff (all on the shortside).

I will avoid picking up those pennies in front of the steamroller! But I do love to watch a big ass bounce. And I love watching them go down. Gotta get ahead in this market, lol.
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HumbleTraders
9 months ago
There is lots of risk running into JOPY futures. This ttells me stocks will break down this year?
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Technician TOP HumbleTraders
9 months ago
I think so. I think we might get another bear market rally in the coming few weeks, before resuming and see a breakout.
Reply
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