Marek99

To the Moon Alice ! Short and Long term game theory play

SP:SPX   S&P 500
Not is this not just a year end's prediction, but it's also a prediction for the next 3 months.
This has a chance of 70% playing out within acceptable bands of error.

Bold prediction Game Theory only
no longer valid due to changes in the Geo-political landscape US/AIIB/FRANCE/RUSSIA/ISRAEL/QATAR ... etc ... etc - looks like a new plan has emerged. The future is still very bright.
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added $spy Mar 220 calls@.18...holding, waiting...wish i could have added more on today's carnage
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jstantrades Sapper_1cd
Just keep adding dude. Put all you got into those calls. I smell a rally coming hard and fast for you!
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Marek99 jstantrades
It sure did, it did not occur as predicted, something must have been left out, hence this is no longer valid, even if its true. Overall I am long on USD, US Real Estate, Wheat and Corn. We are entering a new golden age of technological revolution.
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If you were long right here, what would your stop loss be? How much heat can you take before this trade works? Where would you double-up your trade? Just adding some fuel for your game plan.
+2 Reply
Marek99 timwest
The next few months are the ultimate swing traders dream... I'll play options on both sides and hopefully I can catch a good price for a call on the bottom and put on the top...
The reality is that the FED has made the market very complacent in terms of true volatility.
See this chart for a very rudimentary calculation of Money supply over Volatility
The only chart you need to see TRUE value


Recent volatility confirms the chart, the Fed stopped printing. Now volatility is creeping back to the market... its time to be a good swing trader.
As I mostly trade options only, will see if the setups I made on Friday with options will pay out.

All in all, the remaining 25% probability is the market tanks sharply, in which case the year's end projection is 2468 for SPX...

Remaining percentage of game theory is for a controlled downturn on SPX and other global scenarios that ... I wouldn't post in public.

I'm long on USD no matter what GS says, and I'm long on US real estate .... to be more accurate you would need access to data which shows the outflow of USD to countries vs inflow, data to which the FED has access to.
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