This has a chance of 70% playing out within acceptable bands of error.
Bold prediction Game Theory only
The reality is that the FED has made the market very complacent in terms of true volatility.
See this chart for a very rudimentary calculation of Money supply over Volatility
Recent volatility confirms the chart, the Fed stopped printing. Now volatility is creeping back to the market... its time to be a good swing trader.
As I mostly trade options only, will see if the setups I made on Friday with options will pay out.
All in all, the remaining 25% probability is the market tanks sharply, in which case the year's end projection is 2468 for SPX...
Remaining percentage of game theory is for a controlled downturn on SPX and other global scenarios that ... I wouldn't post in public.
I'm long on USD no matter what GS says, and I'm long on US real estate .... to be more accurate you would need access to data which shows the outflow of USD to countries vs inflow, data to which the FED has access to.