Summer pullback before a SEP 2019 Run!
Things to Watch:
1) Debt Ceiling - Gov Spending Cranks UP - Money Flows - UST/USD Liquidity Squeeze dissipates!
2) Mr. T continues to strike...there is "NO Outcome." The TW Narrative is a Tax on Perception and eventually a Tax on BL's...it is also a "Credible Threat" just like the FED where it becomes a "Perception-Trap" that is set and keeps the markets from blowing up just like the Feds desired outcome, even if Mr. T and crew doesn't even realize it....LMFAO!!! Pure Comedy that Mr. T is doing the Feds work for them!
3) Fed Watch - Rate Cuts...When/How much...Guess what, the Bond Spreads are smoking Crack! Not getting what they are predicting...think about it: No Inflation, All Time Highs in the Market, All Time High Employment, Mr. T keeps "Striking"...the Macro just keeps chugging along...end of story! It's all about the incentives....Raise the BullShit Flag!!!
***Keep a Reserve for the unpredictable and good/better entry points! Have a great summer...I am! Cheers!
Things to Watch:
1) Debt Ceiling - Gov Spending Cranks UP - Money Flows - UST/USD Liquidity Squeeze dissipates!
2) Mr. T continues to strike...there is "NO Outcome." The TW Narrative is a Tax on Perception and eventually a Tax on BL's...it is also a "Credible Threat" just like the FED where it becomes a "Perception-Trap" that is set and keeps the markets from blowing up just like the Feds desired outcome, even if Mr. T and crew doesn't even realize it....LMFAO!!! Pure Comedy that Mr. T is doing the Feds work for them!
3) Fed Watch - Rate Cuts...When/How much...Guess what, the Bond Spreads are smoking Crack! Not getting what they are predicting...think about it: No Inflation, All Time Highs in the Market, All Time High Employment, Mr. T keeps "Striking"...the Macro just keeps chugging along...end of story! It's all about the incentives....Raise the BullShit Flag!!!
***Keep a Reserve for the unpredictable and good/better entry points! Have a great summer...I am! Cheers!
Comment:
The Real Funny is "NO-ONE" is talking Debt Ceiling and its Effects on the Macro! Shows you the level of pure-chosen-ignorance from the market and especially those that cover it!!! Not a single question to the Fed! LOL!
Comment:
Loretta Mester of the Cleveland Fed gave a speech today that contained a very interesting observation:
The current period shares some similarities with the period from 2014 to 2016, when the slowdown in global demand, the decline in oil prices, and the appreciation in the dollar caused a drop-off in investment and manufacturing activity at the same time inflation was well below target. The Fed was patient during this period, with one rate increase in December 2015 and another in December 2016, allowing inflation to gradually move up. So long as the sustainable-growth scenario of continued expansion and strong labor markets remains the baseline outlook, I would favor taking a similar opportunistic approach to the recent softness in the inflation readings instead of trying to proactively move inflation up with rate cuts
Mark Carney, Bank of England
The latest actions raise the possibility that trade tensions could be far more pervasive, persistent and damaging than previously expected. The rationales for action are broadening. Initially motivated by concerns over bilateral trade imbalances, trade measures are now being taken in response to issues ranging from immigration to Intellectual Property protection to control of the technologies underpinning the Fourth Industrial Revolution.2 It has even become fashionable for some to speak of a new Cold War.
That bears a moment’s reflection for a lot has changed. At the height of the Cold War, US-USSR trade was worth $2 billion a year; today, US-Chinese trade clocks $2 billion a day. More broadly trade in intermediate goods and services has doubled since the fall of the Berlin Wall, and production has become increasingly integrated across borders.
***Natural Selection just cannot work fast enough....LMFAO!! Lets hope the Political-Incompetents and Mr. T's Crew don't burn down the entire house! Cheers!
The current period shares some similarities with the period from 2014 to 2016, when the slowdown in global demand, the decline in oil prices, and the appreciation in the dollar caused a drop-off in investment and manufacturing activity at the same time inflation was well below target. The Fed was patient during this period, with one rate increase in December 2015 and another in December 2016, allowing inflation to gradually move up. So long as the sustainable-growth scenario of continued expansion and strong labor markets remains the baseline outlook, I would favor taking a similar opportunistic approach to the recent softness in the inflation readings instead of trying to proactively move inflation up with rate cuts
Mark Carney, Bank of England
The latest actions raise the possibility that trade tensions could be far more pervasive, persistent and damaging than previously expected. The rationales for action are broadening. Initially motivated by concerns over bilateral trade imbalances, trade measures are now being taken in response to issues ranging from immigration to Intellectual Property protection to control of the technologies underpinning the Fourth Industrial Revolution.2 It has even become fashionable for some to speak of a new Cold War.
That bears a moment’s reflection for a lot has changed. At the height of the Cold War, US-USSR trade was worth $2 billion a year; today, US-Chinese trade clocks $2 billion a day. More broadly trade in intermediate goods and services has doubled since the fall of the Berlin Wall, and production has become increasingly integrated across borders.
***Natural Selection just cannot work fast enough....LMFAO!! Lets hope the Political-Incompetents and Mr. T's Crew don't burn down the entire house! Cheers!
Comment:
Quarterly Earnings...Across the full spectrum you are seeing companies downgrade earnings...stand-bye for a "Uber-Fall." You are now seeing BL's effected by Mr. T & Wrecking Crew...T is doing the Fed's job for him and he doesn't even know it! LOL!
Comment:
What the above shows is that management of the economy via monetary policy is not sufficient, and the outcomes are uncertain and best summarized in the following quote:
Monetary policy is weak and its impact is at best uncertain-it might even be mistaking the brake pedal for the gas pedal. The central bank is the government's bank so can never be independent. Its main independence is limited to setting the overnight rate target, and it is probably a mistake to let it do even that. Permanent ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) is probably a better policy since it reduces the compounding of debt and the tendency for the rentier class to take over more of the economy.
seekingalpha.co...uly-2019-expect?app=1&... --Alan Longbon
Monetary policy is weak and its impact is at best uncertain-it might even be mistaking the brake pedal for the gas pedal. The central bank is the government's bank so can never be independent. Its main independence is limited to setting the overnight rate target, and it is probably a mistake to let it do even that. Permanent ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) is probably a better policy since it reduces the compounding of debt and the tendency for the rentier class to take over more of the economy.
seekingalpha.co...uly-2019-expect?app=1&... --Alan Longbon