This 2 hour chart updates my earlier chart from 28th Oct in which I identified 2610 as a possible top for the SPX. If correct SPX is in an ending diagonal and has just completed wave 3 at 2604.39. Wave 4 should show a small correction before wave 5 finally drives SPX to 2610 or just above if a throwover occurs. Good Luck
SPX fell back into your blue channel on Friday and bounced off the top of your red rising wedge intraday. I think there's a good chance that it will fall back there on a closing basis. I like the increased volatility (a 90-point round trip on Friday) which can lead to a top.
Teich50
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Looks like SPX has rallied to almost touch the upper part of the blue channel, unless it retraces before the close.
Geofftv1
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@Teich50, this idea is now void given the huge push today. I still think wave 5 is in progress but still has momentum. Will look again at charts and post when I have an idea of what is happening.
Teich50
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@Geofftv1, I think I'll know when we see a daily reversal candle, similar to the one we saw in the Nikkei 3 weeks ago.
Teich50
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@Teich50, I thought we'd get a reversal today but the rebounce was so strong that it made a higher high in SPX, RUT, etc.
Teich50
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@Teich50, I do think the price action today is terminal, similar to what we saw on Mar 1, 2017. It's @pittpitt123 's idea
josephtse
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Hmm..then where does it go from there? Tax reform is quite a binary event and I see it pushing the market 50 points in either direction. So which direction?
Teich50
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@josephtse, @Geofftv1 is calling the blue v circle as "the end of the complete wave starting in early 2016". If he's right, SPX should stay below 2610-ish, or more likely it will retrace or trade sideways for many months before the next major wave up, IMO.
Geofftv1
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@josephtse, my analysis concentrates on the wave count and does not consider possible political events. I have lost count of the times that a supposed positive events has actually reversed the market. Time will tell.