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DaddySawbucks
Feb 13, 2022 12:12 AM

Measured Move Time Price Projection Short

S&P 500 IndexTVC

Description

When the former Soviets roll over Ukraine you can expect the measured move depicted IMO.

Maybe you don't care to play shorts, but think carefully about holding longs. might not be prudent at this juncture, eh?

NB: An expedited closed FOMC meeting is scheduled for Monday 14 Feb:

federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20220214closed.htm

Advanced Notice of a Meeting under Expedited Procedures

It is anticipated that the closed meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at 11:30 a.m. on Monday, February 14, 2022, will be held under expedited procedures, as set forth in section 261b.7 of the Board's Rules Regarding Public Observation of Meetings, at the Board's offices at 20th Street and C Streets, N.W., Washington, D.C.. The following items of official Board business are tentatively scheduled to be considered at that meeting.

Meeting Date: Monday, February 14, 2022
Matter(s) to be Considered:
1.
Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks.

Comment

MOstly been watching, few positions. Tues rally looks like bull trap. Yields inverting. Russians invading soon IMO. FOMC at 2pm...

Comment

Traded up n down n up on FOMC, wild ride. Opening bear spreads in SPY Feb 28 447p, short Friday 439p. Opened 300 shares SPXS + 200 SQQQ.

This is High Risk and I do not recommend it, speculative!

Trade active

Closed all the bear shares and puts. IMO WW III may be already priced in here, lol. Be real careful bout chasing this and holding puts on weekend could be disappointing... invasion may already be priced in.

Comment

Loading up bear shares in SQQQ SPXS

Trade active

Closed shorts after noon played a small long, do not be fooled by the rallies, short them IMO

Trade active

Shorted again and again. Holding 20 puts for endmove. Russians closed airspace over Kharkiv, invasion imminent

Trade closed: target reached

Got damned close Im calling it good, could still tank one more time IMO but we got way oversold and got a dragonfly candle coming out of the pit. Would NOT bet on lower IMO. OPening TQQQ Long covered writes.

Shorting UVXY in 11 March $20 puts, ten contracts.

Comment

BTW Banked a nice net on that massive gap with just 20 puts. Shoulda bout 100 fgs! LOL @putin , thanks bastard!

Comment

Getting a buy button on indicators, could be one more flush Friday, should be long thereafter IMO

Comment

Did get a pullback fri am the shorts covered and wound up the open puts, closed futurz and bought all day.
Made a bit on the gap fill and took some calls closed too soon ofc but played powerhour eod with modest success. Anything can happen from here, price testing descending TL, a deeper pullback is likely IMO.
Comments
dg78
Still looking for a downturn on the 28th?
DaddySawbucks
@dg78, probly get a wave 2 anyway idk bout double bottom, low might be in, or could just crash, pure gamble
tacosaurus
as always, you are spot on. i think we visit 4220 very soon, possibly even monday. ukraine could be the catalyst to visit 4k. the surprise fed mtg is probably only going to be a 25 bp move - but this was actually announced on the 10th. oh, also goldman cutting spx forecast: bnnbloomberg.ca/goldman-cuts-s-p-500-year-end-target-to-4-900-on-rate-outlook-1.1722352
tacosaurus
@DaddySawbucks looks like we did visit 4220. you think we push lower here now? it feels like there is a short covering bounce in the works even though I am not quite yet there (and we're not terribly oversold). 4000? where do you see it going after the bombs drop? or do you think we are in 'sell the rumor, buy the news' mode here?
DaddySawbucks
@tacosaurus, futurzzzz
Netris101
Amazing 😉
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