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DaddySawbucks
Dec 28, 2022 12:54 AM

Measured Move? Pennant on Flagpole Short

S&P 500 IndexTVC

Description

Last week of price action generated a pennant. Typically these fly at half-staff on a flagpole. Not sayin it will; but it sure could.

The measured move remains below the pennant. 300 pips to half-staff; 300 more would go to 3530 if it goes. Be carefull! GLTA

Comment

BTW today Cramer suggested we should "Buy Da DIP"... SELL!

Trade active

PA weakens. Flipped 381p on the AM sell. Could really go off Thursday. Might find support at 3800. Crapshoot.

Comment

How bout that. Starts lookin like 2008>2009.

Comment

Watch close now. This does have feel of a fifth and could be a finishing move. Usually the end of bear wave arrives with a dragonfly doji... the Hammer.

If it tanks off another 40 pips Thursday watch for pivot reversal. Take it real easy here folks.

Trade closed: stop reached

Yeah probly not gonna tank just yet. Warned you take it easy! ALways full of surprises.

Comment

An amazing finish EOY, wow. 0DTE calls went from .60 > 3.60, +600%. I picked up some .39c calls and sold for 80c being very happy +100%, then watched in amazement as they delivered another 100%! Stunning finish. Shorts got caught in a bear trap and scrambled to cover EOD.

This Hammer doji what I been looking for to drive a Nail into the bear coffin. Looks like we got an inverted right shoulder; could get a strong move up in January to test the TL. HNY!!!
Comments
Rockqet
Hello there thanks for the analysis, I actually have a higher pullback sell area. I am looking to take profit at 3743.73, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Please consider my suggestion:
DaddySawbucks
@desmondlzw, no one knows where it will go, or how far... maybe it will bull after all. doubt it tho
day0
@DaddySawbucks, i know where it's going to go now to 2023-06. :downtrend: :D
DaddySawbucks
@desmondlzw, might be a good bet, I'll take it
dRends35
Nice post. This is the beginning of the real crash I think.
aox8zs
@dRends35, Nice post. This is the beginning of the real crash I think.
dRends35
@aox8zs, Lol parrot
day0
i expect Q1 to 2023-06 unwinding during the "under-consumption" phase. so i agree with a decline.
ThinkLikeaWhaleTLAW
Great work.. clear and precise TA.
I'm under the assumption that Q4 of 2022 was nothing more than a classic Bull trap. The complancy stage of the market. Old money needs new $ to hold the bags the next 12-24 months.
The 7 year cycle restarted on Sept 28th 2022 if that says anything about what's to come my 1st target would be the 9 yr MA
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