8/27/19 could be turn around Tuesday for the SPX, on that day the decline that began on 7/26/19 will equal in time the May to June drop. Price equality is near SPX 2800. The declines Elliott pattern appears to be a Combination wave with the first wave "w" - boxed as an Expanding Flat. The third wave subsequent to "x" wave, appears to be a nearly complete Zigzag. Watch the Put/Call ratio, it is already in the buy zone. If the 8/5/19 SPX bottom is broken it could cause an even higher P/C spike up. P/C ratio updates every 30 minutes through the SPX trading day.
Please allow me to express a devils advocate opinion/ observation here.
I write this because I respect you and your Elliot Wave Analysis, above most writers and have read your work in countless articles for many years.
The issue I am having here is one of accountability for the bullish market opinions that you write, when you write them,
and then the complete silence, and lack of explanation or followup if your bull cases proves wrong, and wrong substantially at times.
You were pounding the table bullish at S+P 3000 this summer.
100 S+P points lower...
Still very bullish at S+P 2900
Now, if the S+P were to fall almost another 50 handles, down to the 2800 , you are still bullish.
That's fine I guess if you are long the market, for the long term and have the where with all
to handle a now 6% decline from the all time high of 3028 on 7/26/19
But as a trader, one who lives and breathes the market every minute of every day,
I cannot accept a 1 % decline in my trading account,.., let alone 6 % !
So I'm simply asking you here full accountability for what you write.
And to tighten your "stops" when you are wrong,
You are addressing what might happen on 8/27/19 ,some 48 hours from now,
so you are taking the liberty of writing to short term traders here.
We all want to believe in the man we respect whoever that person is.
PS. As a footnote
I read a great highly passionate book by Robert Prechtor the, Elliot Wave Theorist called "The Turn of The Tidal Wave in 1994,
where he laid out a completely believable and compelling bearish case for the market going forward.
Now going on 25 years later, his ultra bearish scenario still hasn't occurred
And ,...I have never seen him take accountability for being so wrong, for so many years.
I know you have made two remarkable long term market bottom calls of material significance,
at the Brexit low in June 2016, and at the intermediate/long term bottom in Dec.2018.
I believe in you, and your work enough to have written all of this out of respect.
I hope you accept it that way.
Hi thanks for your imput. As to tightening my stops - I never recommend stops, I state time and price ranges where markets can turn. There are many types of traders, some trade only intraday, some for a few days, some for weeks or longer and if they use stops the levels could vary depending on their time frame and account size. Then there are traders that don't use stops,
they are hedging with options or index funds long/short. Others could be trading a portfoio of many stocks and just sell/cover all or part of positions if they are losing value. Finally there are traders that use no protections at all - good luck to them.
It is up to each trader to decide what type of trading portection and when/where it is to be used.
As to explaining when a forecast is wrong - what is there to explain? If, such as in this post I state a specific price/time zone and in this case the SPX never reaches the targets or blows well beyond the target everyone will know something else is happening. As to any periods of silence - I only post when there is strong evidence to back up my opioions. Within the last week and half I have not posted anything about stocks because I did not have strong evidence about the short term or long term direction of the stock market. It is a waste of time to comment every day about any market unless there's some particular evidence regarding the direction of that market.
Mark
gvmrb0040
⋅
Mark, You have smaller time frame wavecounts here. Yes, 2800(200 day moving average) would be rebound area but I think we have one more leg down in 2730 area I think in a double zigzag. This(correction to 2730) also agrees with a longer time frame ABC correction off the 3025 top
I write this because I respect you and your Elliot Wave Analysis, above most writers and have read your work in countless articles for many years.
The issue I am having here is one of accountability for the bullish market opinions that you write, when you write them,
and then the complete silence, and lack of explanation or followup if your bull cases proves wrong, and wrong substantially at times.
You were pounding the table bullish at S+P 3000 this summer.
100 S+P points lower...
Still very bullish at S+P 2900
Now, if the S+P were to fall almost another 50 handles, down to the 2800 , you are still bullish.
That's fine I guess if you are long the market, for the long term and have the where with all
to handle a now 6% decline from the all time high of 3028 on 7/26/19
But as a trader, one who lives and breathes the market every minute of every day,
I cannot accept a 1 % decline in my trading account,.., let alone 6 % !
So I'm simply asking you here full accountability for what you write.
And to tighten your "stops" when you are wrong,
You are addressing what might happen on 8/27/19 ,some 48 hours from now,
so you are taking the liberty of writing to short term traders here.
We all want to believe in the man we respect whoever that person is.
PS. As a footnote
I read a great highly passionate book by Robert Prechtor the, Elliot Wave Theorist called "The Turn of The Tidal Wave in 1994,
where he laid out a completely believable and compelling bearish case for the market going forward.
Now going on 25 years later, his ultra bearish scenario still hasn't occurred
And ,...I have never seen him take accountability for being so wrong, for so many years.
I know you have made two remarkable long term market bottom calls of material significance,
at the Brexit low in June 2016, and at the intermediate/long term bottom in Dec.2018.
I believe in you, and your work enough to have written all of this out of respect.
I hope you accept it that way.
Thank you.