STRUCTURAL HURDLES: Two levels to watch for, each likely to determine the onset of a bullish or bearish price action, respectively ... Namely:
1 - One proximal yet technically at 2134.71, based on probable bearish entrenchment
and
2 - A second at 1821.61, based on price behavior along this line.
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS::
WAVE COUNT: Wave count remains in doubt, although there is a good probability that we are entering a corrective phase. At this time, I am discerning a multi-year primary motive wave, extending from late to present. Note that the morphology of this impulse suggests a Wave-3 Extension.
EQUALITY: Considering the nature of Wave-3 extension, this typically calls for equality of amplitude and time shared by Wave-1 and Wave-5. One can only approximate what timing might mean at this time, but it might be worth noting that the amplitude is maintained as shown, were price to find renewed elan from the lesser-degree Wave-4, which is a standard expectation in corrective wave form and function.
ALTERNATIONS: Primary wave-2 and wave-4 appear to comply to alternations, whereby the former completed a Flat (3-3-5 internals), compared to the initiation of a probable zig-zag ("ZZ" with 5-3-5 internals, currently terminating a probable internal wave-b). If current correction is indeed a ZZ, expect a sharp counter-trend to the downside.
This is as timid a wave analysis AS I am willing to RISK, as I am remain unsure about the current status of the correction.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
The "Model" remains intent on two bullish targets, namely:
1 - TG-Hi = 2207.48 - 13 SEP 2015
AND
2 - TG-Hix = 2404.35 = 13 SEP 2015
I have produced several analyses on this index over the past year and some, and most of the data generated by the Predictive/Forecasting Model has stubbornly approximated these values. So, for the sake of simplicity, I will make this recent analysis the defining moment of these recurrent bullish targets.
OCCULT GEOMETRIES:
There is no outstanding geometry at this time. A simple channel remain in force as illustrate below. Any emerging geometry would be published if it appears at the 4-hour frame and above. OVERALL:
Recent analyses in USD have support a probable interim decline in the #USDollar index. Considering the positive correlation that exists between this benchmark and the USDJPY (imminent decline per recent analysis), one should remains open to the possibility of a significant decline.
A break below 1821.61 would also open the floor to bearish targets. I often "force" the Predictive/Forecasting Model to "look at the other side" in terms of possible counter-trend scenarios. The following chart illustrate what target might emerge if such lesser-probable downturn were to occur:
Best,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA
Price remained tethered to dashed arrow forecast, bouncing of off predicted support ... A reactive rally to bullish targets is not out of this world:
Best,
David Alcindor
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03 FEB 2016: ADDENDUM
You will clearly see via the replay link in the original chart above that as of the release of this forecast on 02 NOV 2015, price tightly followed the forecast decline that was predictive.
Now that price reached the forecast support at 1821.61, and that the current third WEEKLY bar has shown sustained rallying, I would caution the index player to remain open-minded to the probability of a higher structural high being carved, as per the dashed line forecast, which remains to be in force and intact since its release last November.
Also of note, both bullish targets, defined by my proprietary Predictive/Forecasting Model ("Model") remain unanswered. Although these represent one of the Model's qualitative targets (i.e.: "Qual-Target": TG-Hi or TG-Hix, TG-Lo or TG-Lox), they carry a lesser probability of attainment, but have a higher probability of reversal, compared to the Model's quantitative target (i.e.: "Quant-Target": TG-1, TG-2, ... TG-n ... etc), which carry a higher probability of attainment, but a lower reversal potential.
OVERALL: Predictive/Forecasting Model remains BULLISH at this level, even though a lower-low can be carved below the target 1821.61, which would only define an Elliott Wave's Ending Diagonal, or a Wolfe Wave / Geo geometry. These geometries tend to advance rapidly with a concluding FIFTH Elliott Wave - Consider the following chart, where a 5-point consolidating geometry may be occurring:
Again, price remains strictly tethered to dashed forecast, as it bounced off of the forecast support at 1821.61 and is now carving new higher-highs.
Aside from the speculative wave counts, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains bullish with loftier targets as probable events.
Best,
David Alcindor
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15 APR 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
While presumed geometry failed, price remains tethered to dashed arrow forecast:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate
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20 MAY 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price continues to spouse the dashed forecast since forecast was released, whereby price did fall to predicted support at 1821.61, followed by a compliant rally into a sustained rally to 2100.00.
Since 2100.00, price retraced slightly to a probable temporizing consolidation as it appears to effect an Elliott Wave 4th wave.
If price continues to consolidate into current base, a rally over the next weeks becomes probable - Look for BACA > 2134.71 level for a confirmation of a bullish march towards higher highs.
Whereas the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intact and in force with 2207.48 as a higher probability target than 2404.34 (both defined this past September 13th 2015), I have also added a LOW-PROBABILITY window at which a TOP is to occur, namely in the 24 APR 2017 to 10 JUL 2017 period.
Best,
David Alcindor CMT Affiliate #227974
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03 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price carving higher highs; Dashed forecast line remains in force:
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Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate - Alias: 4xForecaster
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30 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Bullish forecast remains intact and in force - Now, watch for 2134.71:
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
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12 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price remains tethered to dashed line forecast, as it breaks out towards the lofty targets, defined last SEP 13th 2015:
A WL ("Watch Line") rests at 2667.58, representing a high-probability reversal, low-probability attainment.
* * * NOTE To Students of the CROW * * * Watch for scaled-down confirmation in case it has not occurred at this level. WL is drawn off of @1: EM
Also, Elliott Wave may not necessarily impose its Rule of Alternations, based on a protracted impulsive Wave-3 - So, a symmetry in breadth and width is possible here as a way to "time it", but as is customary, ignore price and keep the CROW in sight at ALL times.
Regards,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
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05 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price continues to rally as per original forecast, tethered to the dashed price pathway:
Targets at 2207, 2404 and 2667 remain intact and in force.
Have a fantastic weekend.
Regards,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
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16 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
No change from the Predictive/Forecasting Model: - Price remains tethered to the original forecast (dashed curved arrow) - Bullish targets at 2207, 2404 and 2667 remain intact and in force
Thank you for all the recent kind referrals and friendly shares on this and other social sites.
Regards,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
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23 AUG 2016: Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Tethered to the original dashed forecast line, price continues to carve incremental higher-highs. Targets at 2207, 2404 remain intact and in force, 2667 remain a probable level of reversal:
Regards,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 Alias: @4xForecaster on Twitter
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23 AUG 2016 - Typo Correction: Forecast date in chart should read:
"19-22 SEP 2016"
Best,
David
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07 SEP 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
As per forecast, price continues to gain ground over 2202 target, defined last nearly a year ago. TG-Hi is a quantitative target, per Predictive/Forecasting Model ("CROW Code" method), so expect retracement and NOT reversal yet:
Best,
David Alcindor
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12 SEP 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Over this weekend, price found support at the 2120.55 handle, corresponding to a structural projection across the recent bullish impulse leg. Still, risk of a temporary decline to the 200 area remains a possible risk event in the mot immediate terms, whereas Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intent on loftier targets in the longer time horizon:
Regards,
David Alcindor
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UPDATE - SPX/Weekly - 24 MAR 2018:
As of today, ALL targets have been hit. Update and reversal target provided in new analysis.
The correlation between SPX and #crudeoil has a history of positive and negative correlations, at times moving in lock-step as it appears to have done in recent months, and at times unwinding any such synchrony, as it appears to do in the most recent times.
Here is a recent article I dug out for your review, attesting to this vacillating correlation, between being positive at times, and negative at others:
- bit.ly/1WaV7S4
So, what does it say to me if two assets are at times paired in action, and at other times uncoupled? Nothing, other than remarking a not-so reliable a rule, if there was even a rule to have here.
I my analysis, relative strengths as correlations are important events worth noticing, but they do NOT enter into the algorithm that define a probable move or target.
Not all snow falls end up in accumulations on the ground. So a precipitation in oil does not always mean a bearish tack in broad market indices.
David
coolingla
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Make sense. Today is the proof.
coolingla
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David,
I read that article. It examines the reason but doesn't provide an explanation.
I believe the strength of the correlation has a lot to do with market's belief of oil price's correlation to the overall economy. Sounds redundant, but it doesn't. In the past some months, the market believed oil was a key barometer to gauge the economy (in a time when there are too many noises and no clear direction) thus oil lead the market with lock step price moves. More recently, market thinks oil is more of a political move thus the weakened correlation. Of course, it must be more complicated that this but this is one of the main reasons.
Regardless, my real puzzle is that:
1. SPX is moving higher to all time high according to your model
2. Oil is moving lower to maybe all time low according to your model
3. While the correlation has weakened, 1 & 2 happening at the same time seems to be at extremely unlikely
If some other guys propose 1&2 together, I will just ignore it, but David you have an outstanding track record and sound reason behind all propositions so I have to take it seriously.
My take is still that for oil to reach the $21 target, SPX has to be weakened in some way but definitely not at all time high.