Today 1/13/17 the Nasdaq Composite again made a all-time high unconfirmed by the SPX and DJIA. This is a sign of weakness because less stocks are participating in the rally.
The SPX may have completed a Elliott Wave Running Flat. See "Elliott Wave Principle" pages 46-47. This is a very bearish pattern and fits well with less and less stocks failing to rally.
The bearish crossover on the 15 minute MACD indicates Tuesday 1/17/17 could be down.
The alternate count to the illustrated pattern would be a Double Zigzag down from the all-time high followed by wave "1" up.
Comments
kunsan
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SPX made a strong break upwards from the flat W4. Now appears to be trying to reach the target area of 2313/7. In this move I see five clean waves under development - W1 was the move upwards from the 2254 flat low to 2279, now in W3 which is 1.618*W1 at 2297 or so (and may overshoot to try for 2302). Watching for a W4 then W5 to reach the 2313/7 target area.
If all this happens, the market should then fall to around the 2280 area to fill the breakaway gap.
Congratulations your bullish forecast was correct.
Mark
sechiw
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I agree with Kunsan. The drop to 54 was likely a flat. I think that W1 was finish in 72 and the drop to 68 was W2. Now just started W3 with a target of 92-98
sarquax
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Hi,
Good analysis,
But why do you say that it is in minutes? Your graph is showing days for the chart right?
Other question, what does: "S&P 500, 15, TVC" mean? The 15 and TVC ?
Each price bar on the chart represents 15 minutes of trading.
S&P 500 is the stock index the chart represents.
TVC is a notation that Trading View uses, I think it designates intraday charts.
Sorry, but I see a completely different situation. The drop to 54 was likely completion of a FLAT. The five wave advance upwards from 54 is likely a complete W1 leading to a target area of 2313/7. Note that the rise from 54 to 78 is almost exactly 38.2 of the potential rise from 54 to 2313/7 and a likely place for W1 to stop.
If this is correct, then W2 (of 5) will drop to around the 2264/8 area, after which the market should rise strongly in W3 (of 5) and make an attempt at the 2300 area. This is likely to be confirmed by a strong break above 78/9.
Of course I agree that a drop BELOW 54 will be bearish and negate the upwards potential to 2313/7.
kunsan
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Sorry, I should have added that the target date for 2313/7 is Jan 21st, around the time of the inauguration, after which a sharp correction should occur.
markrivest
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Hi @kunsan,
Thanks for the comments.
I'll turn bullish if the SPX can exceed 2285.92 which is a very important Fibonacci level mentioned in my posts.
If all this happens, the market should then fall to around the 2280 area to fill the breakaway gap.