This week's chart reflects my intermediate term thinking. The correction has been well anticipated, though the initial decline happened a bit below the expected price level for Wave 5. However, the move was "on time" where Elliott Wave calls for price as primary and time as secondary. I believe that is wise in general.
My (market) vote is in: The correction is confirmed and further declines are expected. It just won't be a straight line, of course. A general series of lower highs and lower lows will keep everyone guessing about the bottom and upward extent of counter-trend rallies. The entire decline's beginnings are in place with the October plunge piercing the 200d sma, which now has a slight downward slope. Now it gets re-tested from below with the first major counter-trend rally underway as Red wave "B." The process will repeat and test major resistance as new bottoms, with counter-trend rallies along the way, from 2532, to 2417, to 2322, or even lower (1800-2100).
My vote is a graph picturing the above expectation. The broad outline is shown in Red as "ABC" correction with wave A completed. Harmonic patterns help further with identifying target price levels for non-linear movement, in this case illustrated with a Bat pattern (abcd). Finally, horizontal Blue lines reflect important support levels (2417, 2322) where counter-trend events are likely to occur as aligned with earlier important price and Fibonacci levels. In entirety, the process will evolve over months into 2019, not days or weeks.
Having a plan is vital to managing risk/reward over extended time periods. Beyond the intermediate term is always the longer term, and expectation is for much higher levels once the decline ends. Meanwhile, opportunity exists all the time, whether for exiting at price levels along the way as declines continue or afterward in the eventual upturn.
We all need help navigating the market's path and a flexible, well defined, plan is highly recommended. A good starting point is to ask yourself (or your advisor) "What is the plan if today's decline continues?" I strongly suggest you know YOUR personal answer to that question. My vote is in, and fortunately in this case I CAN vote early and often. Get out and VOTE!
Thank you for continually sharing your analysis! I always look forward to reading your insight as this unending saga unfolds. ~much appreciated!
iamthewolf
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@DF, You're welcome and thanks for viewing and commenting.
DaddySawbucks
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Thanks for the detailed post. You're vote: for a bear market... not sure this bull is done yet, but this is certainly in the cards. Keep us posted please!
iamthewolf
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@DaddySawbucks, You're welcome. I've had this perspective for quite some time, but didn't feel compelled to express it while wave 5 was developing, as shown in my many earlier charts. Time will tell. I have various models I use, with more under development. I don't have, or have access to, anything like what Elliott Wave allows for formulating such a perspective. "Analyst" and "pundit" forecasts for YE targets, etc. are not useful. For me, Elliot Wave carries down to a notion of what will evolve, how and with what targets. Clearly the market will affirm or invalidate the path I describe. As someone once said, "when the facts change my opinion does, too." Until then, a good plan is a good friend to have.