The sentiment has fundamentally shifted. Bulls had a great run not having a care in the world and disregarding all possible negative outcomes, but the risk is sinking in now, and the price action shows just how fragile this Bull market really is.
IMHO, this does not mean flood gates opened, circuit breakers, etc. but we will start to have more pronounced bad days and less enthusiastic up days as investors actually begin to listen when there is negative news and scale back their risk a bit. Specifically, I see a bear flag forming -- with the big drop from futures and into Thursday's sell-off as the pole. Friday continued the tread in the sell off after futures clawed back some to set up the channels that we now find ourselves in.
If I'm going out of a limb here, I see futures/pre-market bringing us back up to the top of that channel (~ 3090) with the morning selling-off a bit before retracing back to set the stage. Any spike above 3100 should be very suspicious taken IMO -- that price level has been shown just not to be supported in the current environment. Big low to start, with increasingly tapered higher highs throughout the day, but mostly sideways. 15m/30m candles will tell the true story and (for confirmation), the 30m/1h MACD has been decent for confirmations, along with the 15m CCI
Bulls: Intraday plays maybe, but overall, it's a trap at this point, sorry. Bears: Pick your battles and just short the peaks.
Monday will struggle but will likely end up, Tuesday will also be the same unless Monday overbuys. As always news beats any TA in the near term and so you need to be aware that big good news will instantly reverse a daily course of down and vice-versa.
That all said, I'm looking at a target of 6/24 @ 2800 all other things being equal, it is really just about when to make the play (I will likely get in over 3100 at the peak of power hour pump or the like unless something else drastically changes)
Don't be afraid to get protective hedges if things do drastically drop (like under 3k, I would hedge with a 3100c a couple of days out if the premiums get cheap enough)
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Well, it looks like with some of the news that came out from Asia, the market just immediately rolled over and there was no pump.
That said, I still looking at my original targets, although, frankly, I don't think we will be solidly back over 3k for a bit (baring some gloriously good medical news)
Literally last hour before futures settlement, they pump to 3200 while next month's contract dumps to below 3060. Not going to count that as a legit breakout just in case you were wondering
oranjcrush
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Screenshot of update -- forgive the mix of symbols, but I really like having volume on days like today to see the sentiment better in the smaller resolutions.
Top is SPY, bottom is ES so i pick up overnight movements
oranjcrush
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Not as clean as others, but I'm still looking at this feature as bearish -- the original channel was a bit tight, my updated channel is holding and this morning we are starting to needle the lower bounds. Grab a cuppa, -- gonna be a long day, likely sideways downish