Well there you go, our trading range comes down to this thin little strip of Hyperspace turf known as the 5Y Peak Channel.
The 5Y growth channel angles above the 11Y and 18Y and 38Y growth trends just as the 1Y (newly added and yet to be revealed!) angles above it. Price has yet to escape this channel in the past 5Y, this channel captures all peak between then and now.
Price has never gone above this line, which in effect is average growth rate at the very peak points of Value in the past 5Y.
The new magenta lines here represent the 1Y peak channel since the bottom of last year's correction. The dotted one is the mid line of this quite wide peak channel but upper bounds are 3700 and 3800 almost to the dot here so this further validates a lot of the bull ideas on here pointing to those peaks points.
Anything above that is beyond the realm of logic and probably only has an outside chance.
I still think 3680 is the most likely peak here. Basically a 30 point blow off top Monday to correction at the end of this RW.
Keep it up sir, we're going to catch this top and I've got 4 sets of 2-day ranges from now until January 15th that are very likely candidates for the beginning of the end (1 = Most Likely)
Before I mention these, I don't want to see you give up if some of the S&P historically absurd topping channels breach and close on the daily. I say this because I've witnessed the S&P already capitulate and crash a number of times over the past two weeks. The only reason it is still moving at all is because of its back-end covariance with the Nasdaq. What I have concluded is that this market (S&P, Dow, All Globals) cannot, and will not, "collapse" until the Nasdaq registers a new all-time high, even if it is only a hundred points or so.
The reasons are many-fold, but I will save you from my subjective tape observations during 3 AM Asian sessions. Rather, it is simply that the Nasdaq has proven three things:
a) It cannot be shorted intraday successfully unless the majority of the investing world is buying "value stocks" in other indices trading ATH (lol.) This has only occurred once successfully for an entire session since March '20.
b) It is clear that NAS is the entire market at this point and has been since February '20.
c) It is so much more powerful than the other two laggard US indices that it can override their natural technically-driven tendencies, algos or no algos.
Point c led to the most perplexing market action I'd ever seen back in August '20. There isn't a single human being that can justify the comically anti-climactic, gentle-looking Thursday doji that ended the most complex, absurd, record-breaking move earlier that same week. The only technical reason that exists is its preposterously simple 1.618 extension pre-programmed destination that would "properly" retrace its prior downswing in Feb.
Conclusion: The NAS can be equated to Lenny, from Of Mice and Men; in that the NAS will act in the simplest manner possible from here on out without realizing the violence its causing to the things around it
What I mean to say is that the Nasdaq will reach either a barely visible new all-time high or it will reach the 2.618 extension level from the downswing in February before it collapses itself and every other asset with it.
So don't drive yourself nuts following the S&P until the Nasdaq satisfies one or both of the above. Youve been too diligent to stay sidelined right now especially since some strange type of shit is gonna occur to the Dow, S&P, DXY and metals over the next two-three weeks.
Hang in there bud. You'll know its over when the Nasdaq completes its fifth consecutive throwover and then gently fades gently into the last 7 mins of the session.
ProfitHarvest
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@Perma_Pig, thanks for the data! All starting to feel so meta at this point lol.
Will keep my eye on those B).
Also I’m watching what liquidity and DXY and DIX/GEX do in the next couple weeks.
If it does somehow manage to find its way to a crash after all this mess, we could be in store for an epic unwinding. Check this nuts 18 pt feb crash fractal that has taken shape:
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@ProfitHarvest, lol, honestly I drew one that looks pretty damn close to this, although it would be kinda fun to see the limit down carnage displayed in February for a bit.
But yeah, the dollar's decision on Sunday evening will determine a lot of things. I am leaning towards DXY getting cracked down to 88 and staying there for as long as it takes to satisfy one of those four date ranges I mentioned. Ill secretly be sort of pissed if a bounce-crash occurs in date not mentioned above lmao.
Crypto acting up this weekend is sort of a giveaway and the gold miners being up two days in a row last week means that gold is likely to reverse before DXY initially.
The real event to observe is how DXY behaves as it approaches the 88 level. Any sort of complacency, and its gonna end in disaster for the vast majority of the global population, if you think about what will inevitably happen naturally. Then add Janet Yellen and you get a faster disaster.
That chart really is nutz tho, my god.
ProfitHarvest
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@Perma_Pig, All your dates are very valid here B)
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@ProfitHarvest, was just thinkin the same thing. Just keep melting market. Just. Keep. Melting.
ProfitHarvest
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@Perma_Pig, @markettimer777 Do these dates align with anything you're seein? Countin on your peak tomorrow!
Before I mention these, I don't want to see you give up if some of the S&P historically absurd topping channels breach and close on the daily. I say this because I've witnessed the S&P already capitulate and crash a number of times over the past two weeks. The only reason it is still moving at all is because of its back-end covariance with the Nasdaq. What I have concluded is that this market (S&P, Dow, All Globals) cannot, and will not, "collapse" until the Nasdaq registers a new all-time high, even if it is only a hundred points or so.
The reasons are many-fold, but I will save you from my subjective tape observations during 3 AM Asian sessions. Rather, it is simply that the Nasdaq has proven three things:
a) It cannot be shorted intraday successfully unless the majority of the investing world is buying "value stocks" in other indices trading ATH (lol.) This has only occurred once successfully for an entire session since March '20.
b) It is clear that NAS is the entire market at this point and has been since February '20.
c) It is so much more powerful than the other two laggard US indices that it can override their natural technically-driven tendencies, algos or no algos.
Point c led to the most perplexing market action I'd ever seen back in August '20. There isn't a single human being that can justify the comically anti-climactic, gentle-looking Thursday doji that ended the most complex, absurd, record-breaking move earlier that same week. The only technical reason that exists is its preposterously simple 1.618 extension pre-programmed destination that would "properly" retrace its prior downswing in Feb.
Conclusion: The NAS can be equated to Lenny, from Of Mice and Men; in that the NAS will act in the simplest manner possible from here on out without realizing the violence its causing to the things around it
What I mean to say is that the Nasdaq will reach either a barely visible new all-time high or it will reach the 2.618 extension level from the downswing in February before it collapses itself and every other asset with it.
So don't drive yourself nuts following the S&P until the Nasdaq satisfies one or both of the above. Youve been too diligent to stay sidelined right now especially since some strange type of shit is gonna occur to the Dow, S&P, DXY and metals over the next two-three weeks.
Alright then, you can see my dates now:
1 -> (Dec 10th - 13th)
2 -> (Dec 28th - 29th)
3 -> (Dec 17th - 18th)
4 -> (Jan 5th - 6th)
Honorable mentions:
- December 31st via Flash Crash
- Tomorrow
Hang in there bud. You'll know its over when the Nasdaq completes its fifth consecutive throwover and then gently fades gently into the last 7 mins of the session.